The study does not provide the actual image India’s current jobs situation. This is because of the demonetisation and the introduction of the tax reform, Goods and Services Tax (GST).
According to a new report, India is all set add more than 7 million jobs by the current fiscal ends, that is by March 31. Last week, Professor Pulak Ghosh of IIM, Bangalore, and Group Chief Economic Adviser of State Bank of India, Dr Soumya Kanti Ghosh, prepared and released a report that is bound to make Modi government and people of India happy. The report is titled as, ‘Towards a Payroll Reporting in India’. The report is based on the account of organised sector employment data. The report includes inputs from the Employees’ Provident Fund Organisation (EPFO), the Employees’ State Insurance Corporation (ESIC), and National Pension System (NPS) enrollment numbers up to the end of November 2017. The researchers have extrapolated for the full year 2017-18.
Since the report includes data from various employee funds organisations that date only to November 2017, hence in order to be conservative on estimates, and to avoid any anomaly, researchers have excluded the zero-contribution accounts and considered new workers in the age group 18-25 reports The Indian Express. Both Pulak Ghosh and Soumya Kanti Ghosh say that the assumptions and exclusions are accurate. But they have said that the study does not provide the actual image India’s current jobs situation. This is because of the demonetisation exercise that was conducted in November 2016 and the introduction of the tax reform, Goods and Services Tax (GST).
However, it should be noted that the Labour Bureau’s fifth Quarterly Employment Survey (QES) tell us that from between January and March 2017, job creation stood at 185,000 as against 122,000 in October-December 2016 and 32,000 in July-September 2016. Similarly, an analysis conducted by The Indian Express which was published on October 4, 2017, depicts that 121 companies that were listed under BSE 500 index saw a decline in net hiring in 2016-17. The 121 companies did not include IT and financial services firms. The net hiring in these companies fell from 742,012 to 730,694. The report also highlighted a decline of 11,318 employees across sectors such as metal, power, capital goods, construction and FMCG.
The report, ‘Towards a Payroll Reporting in India’ said: “Based on all estimates, payroll of 5.9 lakh, that is 7 million annual was generated every month in India in current fiscal.” According to the study, the total stock of payroll for the major organised sector segments (EPFO, ESIC, GPF and NPS) was 9.19 crore in March 2017. And if zero contribution accounts too, are included, the organised sector workforce numbers would rise to 10 crore.