Upgrade rating to ‘buy’ on Embassy REIT from ‘add’ with revised NAV of Rs 430/unit: ICICI Securities

By: |
August 27, 2020 12:40 AM

At CMP of Rs360, the Embassy REIT offers a distribution yield of 6.8% in FY21E, 7.1% in FY22E and 7.8% in FY23E.

The Embassy REIT distributed Rs18.8 billion of NDCF in FY20 or Rs24.4/unit.The Embassy REIT distributed Rs18.8 billion of NDCF in FY20 or Rs24.4/unit.

The Embassy Office Parks REIT (Embassy REIT) delivered a robust performance in FY20, in its maiden year of listing, with net operating income (NOI) growth of 15% and net distributable cash flow (NDCF) distribution of Rs18.8 billion or Rs24.4/unit. Inspite of Covid-19 headwinds, Q1FY21 performance was also resilient with 99% collection efficiency in office rentals, resulting in NDCF distribution of Rs 4.5 billion, which was up 8% YoY. We believe that the REIT’s low leverage (net D/E of 0.2x), marquee tenant profile and de-densification of offices making up for increased work from home will enable the REIT to deliver 11% NOI CAGR over FY20-23E. We roll forward our DCF-based target price to March 2021 with a revised NAV of Rs430/unit (earlier Rs403) and upgrade our rating to ‘buy’ from ‘add’. At CMP of Rs360, the Embassy REIT offers a distribution yield of 6.8% in FY21E, 7.1% in FY22E and 7.8% in FY23E.

The Embassy REIT distributed Rs18.8 billion of NDCF in FY20 or Rs24.4/unit. Of the total FY20 distribution/unit, Rs10.0 was in the form of interest, Rs14.0/unit in capital repayment and Rs0.4/unit in the form of dividend. At a portfolio level, NOI grew 15% YoY driven by incremental leasing, re-leasing at decent mark-to-market spreads and early completion of 1.4msf of development.

The REIT’s current tenant portfolio has around 50% of tenants in the technology domain with even smaller verticals such as financial services and research/consulting consisting of global in-house captives. Currently, the REIT’s top 10 occupiers contribute ~42% of the gross overall rental income as of June 2020. We expect the REIT to deliver 11% NOI CAGR over FY20-23E driven by incremental leasing, new assets and recovery in hotels.

While the mark-to-market opportunity for higher rentals in the REIT portfolio are now at risk, with just 7% of overall portfolio expiring in FY21E and 5% in FY22E, we do not see any risk to our assumptions of 5% CAGR growth in rentals across the portfolio with FY23E having ~9% of portfolio expiry when the demand situation may normalise.

With the next set of completions of 0.9msf being in Techzone, Pune, 0.7msf in Embassy Oxygen and 1.0msf in Manyata (M3) only in FY23E with the rest of the completions of 4.5msf scheduled post FY23E, the REIT has enough leeway to control supply depending on the market dynamics over the medium-term. As of June 2020, the REIT has gross debt of Rs59 billion (including amortised cost of zero-coupon bonds of Rs36.5 billion), of which Rs2.7 billion is scheduled for repayment in FY21E and Rs4.3 billion in FY22E. The REIT also has cash and investments of Rs9.0billion to cushion against Covid-19 impact.

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