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Maintain ‘buy’ on Tata Steel with TP of Rs 830

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New Delhi | Published: June 27, 2018 2:37:22 AM

Tata Steel (Tata) came out with it statement of integrated accounts for FY18 (Environmental Social and Governance report + Annual report).

Revenues from new products continue to hover around Rs 20bn.

Tata Steel (Tata) came out with it statement of integrated accounts for FY18 (Environmental Social and Governance report + Annual report) according to which FY18 witnessed  i) Ramping up of Kalinganagar; ii) Largest rights issuance for the company since Tata Steel Europe acquisition, which helped net debt to reduce below Rs 700bn; iii) Start the process of acquisition of Bhushan Steel under IBC 2016; iv) Significant restructuring in the European business with MoU with ThyssenKrupp to form a 50:50 JV; and v) Restructuring of British Steel pension scheme with acceptance of 69% of the employees for the new scheme and sale of Hartlepool pipe mills.

Large part of the strategic imperatives remain on scheduled course for completion while there has been incremental uncertainty of late regarding timely completion of ThyssenKrupp JV. FY18 annual report though, expectantly, doesn’t throw any incremental light of the same. Nevertheless, there has been a mention of >€20/te compression in European spreads from current levels. We continue to believe that the consolidation in the Indian steel space (organic + Inorganic), lead by Tata Steel, combined with the reforms undertaken in Tata Steel Europe will help in structurally improving Tata Steel’s earnings through cycle. The valuations are inexpensive and have corrected off late going below their 10 year mean in expectation of peak spreads. We maintain buy with a target of Rs 830/share.

Revenues from new products continue to hover around Rs 20bn as Tata makes significant headway in product accreditations from Kalinganagar. Standalone capex has moderated y-o-y to Rs 25bn, yet the process to debottleneck capacity continues. B2B revenues have contributed 60% of revenue. Nevertheless, there is a concerted effort to ramp up services and solutions business where topline has reached ~Rs 12bn (up 25% y-o-y). To note here, in FY17 annual report, the company did mention the target to take services and solutions revenue to 20% of the revenue (presumably standalone).

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