Growth of 4.1% seen for FY19; IT, retail, healthcare among sectors looking up; telecom, FMCG disappoint
After declining for the last two fiscal years, the job market may see a slight growth during the current year but it would still remain below the FY16 levels. Headhunters and analysts have generally estimated that with a spurt in hiring in sectors like information technology, retail, healthcare, education, infrastructure and manufacturing, the job market may see a growth of 4.1% in FY19 against 3.3% in the previous fiscal.
In fact, FY18 turned out to be the slowest in terms of hiring in the last four fiscal years, while FY16 saw the best with growth of 4.2%, according to data compiled by brokerage firm CLSA. Hiring could have been better than what’s been projected for the current fiscal but trends in the telecom and FMCG sectors could pull it down.
In the IT sector, for instance, the addition in headcount during the current fiscal would continue to be in the region of 8-10%, while in infrastructure, increase in the demand for professionals with civil and structural engineering capabilities would lead to a 8% plus increase in headcount, according to estimates shared by HR consultancy firm Randstad India.
R Shankar Raman, chief financial officer, Larsen and Toubro, told FE that the contracts are being given out and therefore, there is requirement for manpower in the infrastructure sector. For L&T particularly, he said the quality of hires is directly proportional to the marquee orders that the company bags. “We are offering great opportunities, working on coastal road, working under water, these are technical stuff that can make one’s resume very rich. So, with $15-20 billion of fresh orders every year would mean that I need to improve my execution bandwidth by that much and obviously we are hiring”.
In fact, he was quick to add that the quality of people who would want to come and work for L&T goes up during tough times.
Hindalco Industries is also quite bullish on hiring in FY19. The company last year hired 180 people from its campus programmes, however, this year the number will be higher. Samik Basu, chief human resources officer, said, “In FY19 we have so far hired approximately 180 from the market and this number can go to around 230, while in FY20 our numbers will be in the range of 350, primarily through campus recruitment programmes.” The hiring will be of graduate engineering trainees, diploma engineer trainees, young HR and finance professionals.
Similarly, for the IT sector, on the back of companies building up capabilities in new age technologies, will augur well for the sector and it will look to continue through 2019, say consultants. Employees with niche skills account for about 40% of the total staff recruited this year, double the proportion in 2017. HCL is said to hire 25,000-30,000 people this year, while IBM is taking over 1,000 people from one of its acquisition. GICs of large MNCs will hire at least 60,000 new people to their captive back offices in India, they said.
Paul Dupuis, managing director and CEO, Randstad India, said, “The roles that will see an increased demand will be in the areas of cloud computing, networking, cyber security and to a lesser extent in artificial intelligence and machine learning.”
Tata Consultancy Services beat its earlier trends of muted hiring in the July-September 2018 period as it recorded net additions of 10,227 employees, which is the highest in 12 quarters.
According to Rajesh Gopinathan CEO & managing director, TCS, this is calibrated to the demand that the company is seeing while majority were fresh hiring. “We see that the demand for services and demand for enhanced technology going together which merits these hiring,” he said recently.
The healthcare sector is also poised to grow at a healthy clip on the back of the government’s Ayushman Bharat initiative, said Dupuis. Healthcare is estimated to witness close to 1-1.5 lakh jobs created in 2019.
Additionally, spurred by new investments in the sector, the retail industry will also add jobs across store and operations roles primarily in urban agglomerations. e-Commerce brands extending their reach to brick and mortar presence is also expected to play a role in the same.
However, sectors like manufacturing, telecom and banking may see either neutral or low single digit hiring.
Rituparna Chakraborty, co-founder and executive vice-president, TeamLease Services, estimates the financial services space is expected to see job growth of about 3% in FY19. However, she believes that NBFCs and small banks expand big time and larger banks who will expand loan books will add in excess of 1.5 lakh jobs. “Increased hiring will be in tier-II cities for roles in sales, collection underwriting and risk. NBFCs are in a sweet spot of growing consumer demand and their ability to tap the unbanked customer base is the key reason that will see a rise in hiring,” she said.
Also, as a consequence of the government’s ambitious loan scheme for the MSME sector, banks may have to increase their headcount in IT, client servicing and credit control roles. Insurance and financial services will be expected to be back on the growth track, said Dupuis.
According to Chakraborty, robotics/automation and social and mobile technologies are the top technological trends that the industry is adopting. New jobs roles in the BFSI sector would include cyber security specialist, credit analyst, robot programmer, block chain architect and process modeller expert, she added.
Meanwhile, telecom will go through stress and the job losses in the Indian telecom sector are expected to be in the range of 50,000-75,000 in calendar year 2018. However, some estimates peg it to be even higher at about 90,000, with roles in sales, customer support, human resource and finance functions being the biggest casualty.