Glenmark Pharmaceuticals rating ‘buy’: Domestic growth to stand out

By: | Updated: December 8, 2018 12:58 AM

FY19 EPS up 22% even as FY20F EPS is cut 14.9% due to expenses; TP raised to Rs 850

On innovation/specialty programmes, the key assets are GBR 830, bispecific antibodies and gXolair, and all these assets made progress in clinical development over the past 12 months.

We expect Glenmark Pharmaceuticals’ (GNP’s) domestic formulation to sustain growth ahead of the broader market. GNP has a strong record of new launches, and in this report we assess the launch of its SGLT2 inhibitor. We expect the product to

cross Rs 2 bn in sales in FY22F (in a Rs 20 bn market), and be the key contributor to growth.

Glenmark Pharma gained limited-competition ANDA approvals in line with our expectations, and we continue to expect additional limited-competition approvals in the near term. We estimate that the pending 62 ANDAs will address brand sales of $34 bn. However, additional competition in gMupirocin cream (17% of revenue) would limit overall growth in the US to single digits over FY19-21F.

On innovation/specialty programmes, the key assets are GBR 830, bispecific antibodies and gXolair, and all these assets made progress in clinical development over the past 12 months. However, there is limited value unlocking due to a lack of large licensing deals and a continued rise in R&D spending. We think a large out-licensing deal is likely in 2HFY20F, and small country-specific deals are likely in the near term.

We revise our FY19 EPS estimate up by 22% to factor in forex and inlicensing income in 1HFY19. We reduce our EPS estimate by 14.9% for FY20F, as we factor in higher expenses.

We raise our target price to Rs 850, based on SOTP: (i) 15x (unchanged) November 2020F EPS ex innovation R&D spending; (ii) -Rs 96/sh for innovation R&D to factor in higher spending and delays in licensing deals. Our TP implies 31% upside. We reiterate our Buy rating. We estimate that 48% of the target value is derived from the India formulation business.

Catalysts
Out-licensing deals, key ANDA approvals and strong India growth.

Valuations
On our FY20F estimates, the Glenmark stock is trading at 18.9x FY20F EPS and 11.0x EV/Ebitda at 4/10% discount to peers, despite the high R&D spending. We think the Street is less optimistic on value unlocking in the innovation
programme.

 

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