With counting of West Bengal Assembly Election Results 2026 is scheduled for May 4, the political spotlight in the state has sharply shifted to an unexpected fault line, the erosion of the Bharatiya Janata Party‘s (BJP) support among the Matua community, long seen as a cornerstone of its rise in the state.
For years, the BJP‘s outreach to Matua refugees rested on a clear and emotive promise: support the party, and the decades-long uncertainty over citizenship will finally be resolved. However, the release of final electoral rolls following the Election Commission‘s Special Intensive Revision (SIR) before the Assembly elections 2026, appears to have unsettled that compact, raising uncomfortable questions for the party in several key constituencies.
Lakhs of names deleted from electoral list
The scale of voter deletions in Matua-dominated regions, particularly in North 24 Parganas and Nadia, has triggered visible unease on the ground. Lakhs of names missing from the rolls have led to confusion, anger, and in some cases, a shift in political loyalties in areas that were once considered BJP strongholds.
Founded in the 19th century by social reformer Harichand Thakur, the Matua sect in present-day Bangladesh, represents a significant section of Bengal’s Scheduled Caste population. Over decades, members of the community migrated to India, often fleeing persecution, and settled largely in border districts.
In south Bengal, they form one of the most politically influential voter blocs, in today’s trend, with a presence across nearly 55 Assembly constituencies.
Precisely in this belt (including Bongaon, Bagdah, Gaighata, Swarupnagar, Ranaghat, and Krishnanagar) where the BJP had built a durable support base by championing the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) as a pathway to legal identity for Hindu refugees.
Will voters back BJP again?
In several villages, the political conversation has shifted dramatically. Voters who once backed the BJP in anticipation of citizenship security are now questioning why they are being asked to re-establish their identity. Concerns over exclusion from voter lists have amplified anxieties around belonging and legal status.
On April 29, early signs of voter drift were visible. In parts of Bagdah, families reportedly switched allegiance after discovering their names were missing from electoral rolls. Similar sentiments echoed across Matua-dominated pockets, where residents lined up with documents such as Aadhaar cards, ration cards, and school certificates to prove eligibility.
The numbers show the scale of the challenge. North 24 Parganas alone saw more than 12.3 lakh names deleted during the revision process. The Bongaon subdivision emerged as a major flashpoint, with approximately 55,000 deletions in Bagdah, nearly 75,000 combined in Bongaon North and South, around 39,000 in Gaighata, and close to 18,000 in Swarupnagar.
In Nadia district, the situation appeared even more stark. Constituencies such as Ranaghat and Krishnaganj recorded one of the highest rates of deletion, with nearly 78 per cent of those placed under adjudication reportedly struck off the rolls.
Names of non-Muslim voters outnumbered Muslim voters in Bangaon Uttar
A closer look at constituency-level data revealed another critical dimension. In Bangaon Uttar, of the 8,280 deleted voters, nearly 83.7 per cent were non-Muslims, compared to 16.3 per cent Muslims. Similar trends were visible in Bangaon Dakshin, Gaighata, and Habra, where non-Muslim deletions account for over 90 per cent in each case. This sharpened the political narrative, especially in constituencies where Hindu refugee voters form a decisive bloc.
The Matua community is believed to influence outcomes in at least 21 Assembly segments across Nadia and the 24 Parganas. In the 2021 Assembly elections, the Trinamool Congress won 12 of these seats while the BJP secured nine.
For the BJP, the stakes are high. Party insiders acknowledge that Matua and refugee-dominated constituencies contributed significantly to its tally of 77 seats in 2021. Any shift in this voter base could therefore have a disproportionate electoral impact, potentially affecting more than 10 seats in the current contest.
BJP on revival mode
The party moved quickly to contain the fallout. Workers were deployed across affected areas to assist voters in filing Form 6 (application used to include name in the electoral polls) and appeals. Union minister and Bongaon MP Shantanu Thakur also sought to reassure the community, maintaining that no Hindu refugee would be displaced.
However, the reassurance has met with mixed responses on the ground. The Trinamool Congress, led by Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee, has seized the moment to mount a counterattack, arguing that even those who supported the BJP are not safe from administrative processes like voter list revisions.
As the state awaits the May 4 results, the political significance of the Matua vote has only grown. If the first phase of polling highlighted the impact of voter deletions in Muslim-majority areas, the spotlight then shifted to Hindu refugee belts.