In a major twist to the West Bengal assembly elections, leading pollster Axis My India announced it wont release its exit poll projections, citing an “exceptionally high refusal rate” among voters. The organisation’s founder, Pradeep Gupta, said a majority of voters chose not to disclose their choices, making the data statistically unreliable.
‘Atypical’ voter silence spoiled survey exercise
According to a press release shared by the founder, the agency carried out a structured field survey across all 294 constituencies in West Bengal. Around 80 trained surveyors, divided into 16 teams, conducted interviews using standard exit poll methods, covering over 13,250 respondents. Regardless of the extensive exercise, the findings could not meet the required confidence levels.
Gupta stated that the situation as an “atypical and statistically significant challenge,” revealing that nearly 70% of approached voters declined to participate. Some level of hesitation is expected in such surveys, but he noted that this level of non-response far exceeded historical trends and introduced serious bias.
“Our teams travelled over 8,324 kilometres to complete the fieldwork,” Gupta said, adding that the organisation had initially planned to publish the results. “However, after a detailed internal review of data quality, response distribution and statistical confidence levels, we have taken a considered decision not to release the exit poll estimates.”
Other exit polls show split verdict
Other pollsters have released projections that paint a divided picture of the electoral outcome. Several surveys indicate a close contest between the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the ruling Trinamool Congress (TMC), led by Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee.
The elections in West Bengal were held in two phases on April 23 and April 29 across all 294 seats. The results, scheduled for May 4, will determine whether the TMC secures a fourth consecutive term or if the BJP manages a historic breakthrough.
Pollster Matrize revealed that the TMC+ alliance could fall short of the majority mark of 148 seats, estimating its tally between 125 and 140, while giving the BJP a slight edge with 146–161 seats. Similarly, P-Marq projected a stronger performance for the BJP with 150–175 seats, placing the TMC between 118 and 138 seats, and other parties in the range of two to six constituencies.
With one major pollster stepping back over data reliability concerns and others offering sharply differing forecasts, the West Bengal election outcome remains unusually uncertain ahead of the results.