The West Bengal Assembly elections drew to a close on Wednesday with a record voter turnout of 92.47% and exit poll predictions about a drastically altered political landscape. Multiple exit polls suggest the BJP is set to form its first government in the state when votes are counted on May 4. Unofficial election betting markets have also shifted from predicting a TMC victory to giving the BJP an edge since the second phase of polls.

According to an NDTV report, the Phalodi betting market had given the Mamata Banerjee-led Trinamool Congress a lead before the elections. But the tide appears to have turned after the second phase of voting — with estimates indicating the BJP will secure 150 to 152 seats while the TMC gets 137 to 140 seats. The saffron party was previously predicted to get 100 seats.

Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee is also at a ‘weaker’ position for the Bhawanipur contest against former top lieutenant and current BJP leader Suvendu Adhikari. The betting price has reportedly increased from 20 to 25 paise to 50 paise.

The figures projected by the Phalodi satta bazaar are speculative and also prone to fluctuations until the actual results are announced. Betting and gambling are prohibited under the Public Gambling Act of 1867, and considered illegal in the majority of regions across the country.

What is Phalodi Satta Bazar?

The satta bazar is an unofficial betting market that is often seen as a barometer of ground perception. The small, sleepy town of Phalodi near Jodhpur in Rajasthan has gained national attention for its predictions — though its record is not impeccable. Betting is largely illegal and restricted in India and the satta bazar runs an as ‘underground’ system with only a few dozen small tin kiosks set up in the town.

Election betting rates may fluctuate hourly depending on the circumstances, and outsiders are required to deposit cash (or transact digitally) to participate. The Phalodi satta bazaar follows an unusual format where a candidate with a higher price is considered weak.

“From the action-filled live betting to the more clandestine online betting, Phalodi’s satta market, together with the more sophisticated operations that run out of Bikaner, Shekhawati and Pokhran in the region, are estimated to run into hundreds of crores,” an Indian Express article noted in 2024.

What do the exit polls say?

Exit poll numbers have projected a tussle in West Bengal — with the BJP ahead in most of the projections.

  • Chanakya Strategies projected the BJP winning an absolute majority with 150-160 seats in 294 West Bengal assembly It predicted 30-40 seats for the Mamata Banerjee-led Trinamool Congress while others won six to 10 seats.
  • Matrize predicted BJP would get 146-161 seats in West Bengal, TMC 125-140 seats and others 6-10 seats.
  • JVC projected that BJP would get 138-159 seats, the Trinamool Congress 131-152 seats, Congress 0-2 seats, Left parties 0-1 seat and others 0-1 seat.
  • P-Marq exit poll projected 150-175 seats for BJP, 118-138 for Trinamool Congress and 2-6 for others.
  • People Pulse projected 95-100 seats for BJP, 177-187 seats for Trinamool Congress, 1-3 seats for Congress and 0-1 seat for Left parties.
  • Poll Diary exit poll projected 142-147 seats for BJP, 99-127 for Trinamool Congress, 3-5 for Congress, 2-3 for Left parties and 0-1 for others.

Disclaimer: This article provides factual analysis only and is not, and should not be construed as, an offer, solicitation, or recommendation to make any financial decisions. Please note that betting in such a manner is illegal in India.