West Bengal Election Exit Poll Result 2026 Highlight: Exit poll projections for the West Bengal Assembly elections present a sharply divided picture, with agencies split over whether the TMC will retain power or the BJP will emerge ahead.
Two agencies — Peoples Pulse and Axis My India — project a clear lead for the TMC, estimating its tally in the range of 177–187 seats, comfortably above the majority mark. In contrast, multiple other pollsters, including Matrize, P-Marq, Chanakya Strategies and Poll Diary, give the BJP an advantage, with projections ranging from 142 seats to as high as 175 seats.
Some forecasts indicate a closer contest. JVC projects a relatively tight race, with the BJP slightly ahead in the range of 138–159 seats, while the TMC is estimated at 131–152 seats.
Assembly Election Exit Polls 2026 Seat projections from major pollsters across 5 states
The election is a key test for both parties. A victory for the TMC would mark a record fourth consecutive term for Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee. For the BJP, the polls are seen as an opportunity to capitalise on anti-incumbency, allegations of corruption, and its citizenship-related campaign issues.
Disclaimer: Exit polls are statistical projections based on voter interviews conducted immediately after polling. They are not official results and should be treated only as indicative trends.
West Bengal Exit Poll 2026 Results, Predictions LIVE: Mahua Mitra reacts on exit poll surveys
TMC leader Mahua Moitra expressed confidence that her party would prevail despite several exit polls projecting a win for BJP in the West Bengal Assembly elections. She said that poll predictions in the past have often proved inaccurate.
“Before you look at exit polls remember LS 2024 ALL exit polls forecast 350+ for NDA. Chanakya 400; India Today-Axis My India 361-401 ; ABP-C Voter 353-383. Reality is BJP got 240 well short of majority. Exactly same thing will happen on May 4th," she posted on X.
West Bengal Exit Poll 2026 Results, Predictions LIVE: 'Exit polls have not had good histpry in Bengal'
On exit polls, TMC leader Shashi Panja said, "Exit polls will come, the real result will come on May 4, but exit polls have not had good history in Bengal... There has been opposite results...Mamata Banerjee will be the CM...People of Bhabanipur understand her..."
West Bengal Exit Poll 2026 Results, Predictions LIVE: A look at all Exit Polls
Take a look at the various exit poll results
West Bengal Exit Poll 2026 Results, Predictions LIVE: TMC ahead with 177-187 seats in Peoples Pulse projection
According to the Peoples Pulse exit poll, the TMC is projected to secure between 177 and 187 seats, while the BJP is estimated to win between 142 and 171 seats.
West Bengal Exit Poll 2026 Results, Predictions LIVE: TMC leads in AxisMyIndia forecast; BJP close behind
According to the AxisMyIndia exit poll, the TMC is projected to win between 177 and 187 seats, while the BJP is estimated to secure between 142 and 171 seats.
West Bengal Exit Poll 2026 Results, Predictions LIVE: BJP leads with 146-161 seats in Matrize projection
According to Matrize projections, the BJP appears to hold an edge with an estimated 146–161 seats, while the TMC is projected to secure 125–141 seats. Other parties are expected to win between 6 and 10 seats.
West Bengal Exit Poll 2026 Results, Predictions LIVE: BJP leads in PMARQ forecast; TMC trails
According to PMARQ projections, BJP is estimated to win between 150 and 175 seats, while the TMC is projected to secure 118 to 138 seats. The Congress is expected to win between 2 and 6 seats.
Here's the prediction from Matrize:
TMC: 125-140
BJP: 146-161
Others: 6-10
West Bengal Exit Poll 2026 Results, Predictions LIVE: AxisMyIndia predicts TMC an edge over BJP
AxisMyIndia Exit Poll
TMC: 177-187
BJP: 142-171
West Bengal Exit Poll 2026 Results, Predictions LIVE: Peoples Pulse gives TMC an edge
Peoples Pulse Exit Poll:
TMC: 177-187
BJP: 142-171
West Bengal Exit Poll 2026 Results, Predictions LIVE: ABP prediction gives BJP an edge
ABP predicts
TMC: 125-140
BJP: 146-161
Others: 6-10
West Bengal Exit Poll 2026 Results, Predictions LIVE: PMARQ prediction
PMARQ's prediction:
• TMC : 118-138
• BJP: 150-175
• CONGRESS: 02-06
West Bengal Exit Poll 2026 Results, Predictions LIVE: Nearly 90% voter turnout recorded till 5 pm
The second phase of the West Bengal Assembly elections recorded a turnout of 89.99% till 5 pm, according to data released by the Election Commission, indicating robust voter participation across districts.
District-wise figures showed Purba Bardhaman leading with 92.46% turnout, followed by Hooghly (90.34%), Nadia (90.28%), Howrah (89.44%) and North 24 Parganas. South 24 Parganas also reported strong participation at around 89.7%.
Political parties interpreted the high turnout as favourable to their prospects. During the first phase, which recorded a turnout of 91.78%, the All India Trinamool Congress (TMC) had expressed confidence of winning at least 100 of the 152 seats, while the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) projected a tally of around 110 seats.
The first phase of polling was held on April 23, with the primary contest in the state seen between the TMC and the BJP.
West Bengal Exit Poll 2026 Results, Predictions LIVE: How are exit polls conducted?
Agencies adopt a range of sampling techniques, including random and systematic methods, to gather voter responses. These samples are typically structured to reflect key demographic variables such as age, gender, caste, region and other social categories. While some surveys are confined to voters exiting polling booths, others aim to capture a broader cross-section of the electorate.
West Bengal Exit Poll 2026 Results, Predictions LIVE: Law behind the conduct of exit polls
Section 126A of the Representation of the People Act, 1951 governs the conduct of exit polls in India. It bars the publication or dissemination of exit poll findings during the period specified by the Election Commission. Any violation can attract a penalty of up to two years’ imprisonment, a fine, or both.
West Bengal Exit Poll 2026 Results, Predictions LIVE: Past performances of TMC in polls
Since coming to power in 2011, the TMC has steadily expanded its footprint in successive Assembly elections, increasing its seat tally from 184 in 2011 to 215 in 2021 — comfortably above the 148-seat majority mark in the 294-member House.
The party did face a setback in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, when the BJP won 18 seats against the TMC’s 22 out of 42. However, the TMC regained ground in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, securing 29 seats while the BJP’s tally dropped to 12.
West Bengal Exit Poll 2026 Results, Predictions LIVE: When are exit polls expected to release?
It is expected to come out on Wednesday after 6.30 pm, shortly after polling concludes in the second and final phase.
West Bengal Exit Poll 2026 Results, Predictions LIVE: Key faces of TMC
Mamata Banerjee – Bhabanipur
Pabitra Kar – Nandigram
Biplab Mitra – Harirampur
Chandrima Bhattacharya – Dum Dum Uttar
Firhad Hakim –Kolkata Port
Kunal Ghosh –Beleghata
Aroop Biswas – Tollyganj
Prasun Banerjee – Chanchal
Arup Roy – Howrah Madhya
West Bengal Exit Poll 2026 Results, Predictions LIVE: Why exit polls often miss the mark?
Exit polls in India are often constrained by structural limitations that can affect their accuracy. A significant number of voters either decline to share their choices or may not disclose them honestly due to political sensitivities or social pressures. Sampling methods can also overlook small but decisive local shifts in a highly diverse, multi-party landscape. Moreover, under the first-past-the-post system, even marginal errors in estimating vote share can result in substantial deviations in seat projections, causing exit poll forecasts to differ sharply from the final results.
West Bengal Exit Poll 2026 Results, Predictions LIVE: Historic 91% voter turnout in the first phase
In the first phase of the Assembly elections held on April 23, West Bengal registered a record voter turnout of 91%, the highest in its history. The sharp surge has been widely attributed to the Special Intensive Revision of electoral rolls conducted ahead of the polls, which is believed to have brought a larger number of voters into the process.
How close were the pevious exit polls predictions?
The 2021 West Bengal Assembly election remains a clear example of how sharply poll projections can diverge from the state’s political reality. Buoyed by the Bharatiya Janata Party’s strong showing in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections — 18 seats and close to a 40% vote share — most national pollsters predicted a closely fought contest. Some even suggested the possibility of the BJP unseating Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee.
The actual outcome was markedly different. The All India Trinamool Congress secured a decisive victory with 215 seats, turning what was expected to be a tight race into a one-sided result.
A similar pattern was visible in 2016. While exit polls broadly anticipated a win for Banerjee, they underestimated the scale of the mandate. The TMC went on to win 211 seats, far exceeding most projections and comfortably defeating the Left-Congress alliance.
The trend continued in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. Several exit polls projected significant gains for the BJP in West Bengal, with some forecasts suggesting the party could approach 30 seats. However, the final results saw the Trinamool Congress winning 29 seats.