Indian equity markets on Thursday were trading flat on weekly F&O expiry, and benchmark NSE Nifty 50 is likely to stay range-bound for the day, said Milan Vaishnav, CMT, MSTA, Consulting Technical Analyst and founder, Gemstone Equity Research & Advisory Services. Since the last 2-3 trading sessions, markets have been consolidating in a band of 300-400 points. In today’s session, Nifty 50 index was hovering around 16,770, nearly one per cent from previous close, while Bank Nifty fell 0.4 per cent to 35,242. Analysts advise that while trading Nifty and Bank Nifty on weekly expiry day, look for options strikes that have highest OI in both Call and Put.
“Never trade beyond those options strikes having highest open interest (OI) build-up,” Ajit Mishra, VP – Research, Religare Broking, told FinancialExpress.com. Both Nifty 50 and Bank Nifty ended the previous weekly F&O expiry on a negative note. Nifty 50 index settled 24 February expiry at 16248, down 815 points or 4.8 per cent. Bank Nifty plunged 5.8 per cent to settle at 35,228.
Maximum Call open interest of 22.9 lakh contracts was seen at 18000 strike, followed by 17000 strike which holds 21.19 lakh contracts, and 17500 strike which has accumulated 20.04 lakh contracts. Maximum Put open interest of 5.49 lakh contracts was seen at 16000 strike, followed by 16500 strike which holds 12.26 lakh contracts.
Milan Vaishnav, CMT, MSTA, Consulting Technical Analyst and founder, Gemstone Equity Research & Advisory Services
Post opening, Nifty has seen strong PUT writing on 16700 levels and strong call writing on 16800 and 17000 levels. On a historical basis, the 3rd March expiry has highest Call OI at 17000 and maximum PUT OI at 16500. In any case, the markets are likely to stay range bound unless there is a tactical shift in the approach. So long as Nifty stays above 16500, no major weakness will be seen. Coming to Bank Nifty, 35500 has seen highest Put writing taking place today, but highest PUT OI is at 35000 levels. It is seeing consistent Call writing at higher strikes; maximum Call OI concentration is at 36000. This keeps Bank Nifty exactly in the middle of the range defined by options data. Expect a ranged move on either side in Bank Nifty today.
Sameet Chavan, Chief Analyst – Technical & Derivative, Angel One
Market has been consolidating in a band of 300-400 points since the last 2-3 sessions. It has been holding 16500 but at the same time, seeing some pressing around the sturdy wall of 16800-16900. For the coming session, as of now we expect Nifty to remain in this range and hence, in case of any bounce towards the mentioned resistances, should be used to exit longs or even can go short. Bank Nifty has been the weakest link and hence one should avoid aggressive bets for a while. As far as levels are concerned, 36000 remains to be strong resistance and on the lower side, 35000-34800 are the levels to watch out for.
Ajit Mishra, VP – Research, Religare Broking
We feel the pressure in the banking index could push the Nifty lower while metal, IT and energy stocks are helping the index to hold. A decisive breakdown below 35,000 zone in the banking index may result in retesting of the previous swing low around 34,250. For Nifty, the bias would remain sideways to negative till it’s holding below the 16850-17000 zone. On the downside, the 16200-15900 zone would act as crucial support.
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