Uttar Pradesh (UP) Exit Poll Results 2022 Highlights: Exit polls have predicted a clear victory for the BJP suggesting that Yogi Adityanath with return as the chief minister for a second straight term, something which will happen for the first time in UP’s electoral history if the poll results on March 10 fall in line with these surveys. A poll of nine exit polls suggests that the BJP will win around 253 of the 403 seats while the SP-RLD alliance will left a distant second with just 133 seats. While the counting of votes will be held on March 10, the exit poll data will give an estimate of how the parties might fare in the poll outcome.
The UP Assembly elections are seen as a direct contest between the BJP and Samajwadi Party, despite the polls having turned into a multi-cornered contest. While the BJP has joined hands with regional parties like Apna Dal and Nishad Party, the Samajwadi Party has forged alliance with Rashtriya Lok Dal, which has an overwhelming support base in western Uttar Pradesh. In the 2017 UP elections, the BJP-led NDA rode the ‘Modi wave’ to claim a thumping victory, bagging 325 out of the 403-member state assembly while the Samajwadi Party’s alliance with the Congress was left decimated and could win only 47 seats.
UP Assembly Election Exit Polls 2022 Live: In BJP vs Samajwadi Party prestige battle, exit poll predictions shortly
BJP – 228-244
SP – 132-148
BSP – 13-21
Congress – 4-8
Others – 2-6
BJP+ 294 ± 19
SP+ 105 ± 19
BSP 2 ± 2
Cong 1 ± 1
Others 1 ± 1
BJP – 288-326
SP+ – 71-101
BSP – 3-9
Congress – 1-3
Poll of six exit polls published so far predict an easy win for the BJP in Uttar Pradesh and some minor gains for the SP-RLD alliance. If election results on March 10 fall in line with the exit polls, Yogi Adityanath will retain power for a second straight term for the first time in the electoral history of UP.
BJP – 225
SP – 151
BSP – 14
Congress – 9
Others – 4
Exit Poll for UP by ETG Research
BJP – 230-245
SP+ – 150-165
Congress – 2-6
BSP – 5-10
P-Marq Exit Poll for Uttar Pradesh
Matrize Exit Poll for Uttar Pradesh
BSP – 7-15
INC – 3-8
Pollstrat Exit Poll:
BJP+ : 211-225
The exit polls predicted that BJP is set to get between 262-277, reports News18
BJP + : 262-277 SP – RLD: 119-134 Congress : 3-8 BSP : 07-15
The early exit poll predictions suggest a win for the BJP against the SP-RLD alliance, its main competitor in the UP Assembly polls.
Western Uttar Pradesh is believed to be a testing region for Yogi Adityanath amidst the farmers' angst against the BJP governments at the state and Centre over the now-repealed agri laws. The SP-RLD alliance has not only been trying to capitalise on the issue of farmers, but also bring back the Jat-Muslim brotherhood in the region.
Exit polls gives a broad trend and a sense of direction as to where the mood of the nation is heading. It should also be noted that there have been various instances when exit polls predictions turned out to be wrong.
BJP – 312
Samajwadi Party – 47
Bahujan Samaj Party – 19
Congress – 07
Apna Dal (S) – 09
SBSP – 04
Independent – 03
Others – 01
Western UP (73): BJP – 51, SP – 16, Congress – 02, BSP – 01
Rohilkhand (67): BJP – 10, SP – 34, BSP – 18
Awadh (137): BJP – 116, SP – 11, BSP – 00
Bundelkhand (19): BJP – 19, SP – 00, BSP – 00
Purvanchal (170): BJP – 100+ seats
In the electoral battle which went on for nearly two months, the opposition targeted the BJP government over the issues of Lakhimpur Kheri violence, farmers' protest against the now-repealed agri laws, inflation, Hathras gangrape-murder case and the alleged mishandling of COVID-19 situation.
The BJP's campaigning saw Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath cornering the Samajwadi Party for indulging in dynasty politics and exploiting the backward communities for electoral gains. Akhilesh Yadav, on the other hand, targeted the BJP over the law and order situation in the state and the alleged mishandling of the COVID-19 situation.
The seventh and last phase of polling in Uttar Pradesh is being held for 54 Assembly constituencies, including Prime Minister Narendra Modi's Lok Sabha constituency Varanasi. The previous six phases have seen an average voter turnout of over 60 per cent.
The final phase of voting for the assembly polls in Uttar Pradesh will bring down curtains on the electoral battle in five states today, which went on for almost a month. With the conclusion of the seventh phase of voting in UP, the Election Commission’s ban on publishing exit polls will also be lifted and media organisations will come up with their predictions for the Assembly elections held in five states — UP, Punjab, Uttarakhand, Goa and Manipur — between February 10 and March 7. Read More
The opinion polls had predicted a close contest between the BJP and the Samajwadi Party while giving the former an edge over the latter. However, Akhilesh Yadav has time and again exuded confidence that his alliance with Jayant Chaudhary-led RLD will defeat the Yogi Adityanath-led BJP in the state.
On the other hand, senior BJP leader and Home Minister Amit Shah and party chief J P Nadda on Saturday exuded confidence that the party will retain UP with more number of seats than in 2017.
On the other hand, Mayawati-led Bahujan Samaj Party and Priyanka Gandhi-led Congress in the state may struggle to retain their traditional seats, according to the opinion polls which were conducted before the elections.
These elections are said to set the stage for the 2024 Lok Sabha elections and will also be the first indicator of whether the ‘Brand Modi’ continues to be the key to the BJP’s victory run in one poll after another since 2014.