UP Elections 2022: Opinion poll predicts win for BJP, SP likely to settle at 150 seats

The survey, who first two rounds predicted more seats for the BJP government in UP, clearly indicates that the losses for the BJP may comes as direct gains for Akhilesh Yadav’s party. 

The survey, who first two rounds predicted more seats for the BJP government in UP, clearly indicates that the losses for the BJP may comes as direct gains for Akhilesh Yadav's party. 

The BJP is likely to enjoy a comfortable victory in Uttar Pradesh even as it may suffer a major loss of seat share in the upcoming state assembly polls, according to the third pre-poll survey conducted by ABP-CVoter. As per the opinion poll, the BJP may finish bagging 212-224 seats in the 403-seat state assembly while the Samajwadi Party is expected to win around 151-163 seats.

The survey, whose October round predicted more seats for the Yogi Adityanath-led BJP government in Uttar Pradesh, clearly indicates that the losses for the BJP may comes as direct gains for Akhilesh Yadav’s party.

The Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), under former CM Mayawati, is likely to get only 12 to 24 seats, the survey suggests. Meanwhile, the Congress is feared to suffer another poll debacle in the state where it has been trying to regain its lost ground and may end up winning around 2-10 seats.

The BJP-led alliance, which won 325 seats with a 41.4% vote share in 2017, is projected to bag 40.4% vote share, according to the December survey. The Samajwadi Party, BSP, and Congress, respectively, are projected to get 33.6%, 13.2%, and 7.3.% vote share.

The November survey had predicted anywhere between 213-221 seats for the BJP and 152-160 seats for the Samajwadi Party whereas the October survey had projected 241-249 seats for the BJP+ and 130-138 seats for the Samajwadi Party.

The data suggests that a loss for the BJP-led NDA is a clear gain for the Samajwadi Party which has joined hands with Om Prakash Rajbhar’s Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj Party, a former ally of the BJP in the politically crucial state.

However, the BJP has downplayed the SP’s alliances with smaller parties, and has said that its alliance Apna Dal and Nishad Party will be much more impactful in the elections.

All major players including the Samajwadi Party, the BSP and the Congress have decided to go it alone in the upcoming state elections and are rather eyeing joining hands with smaller caste-based parties. However, experts are of the view that a splintered opposition will only help the ruling party, with the division of anti-BJP votes.

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