UP Elections 2022: Opinion poll shows BJP in comfortable lead, but big gains for Samajwadi Party

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Updated: November 13, 2021 12:47 PM

UP Elections 2022: The survey suggests that a loss for the BJP-led NDA is a clear gain for the Samajwadi Party which has joined hands with Om Prakash Rajbhar's SBSP.

UP Elections 2022: The survey suggests that a loss for the BJP-led NDA is a clear gain for the Samajwadi Party which has joined hands with Om Prakash Rajbhar's SBSP.

The Yogi Adityanath-led BJP government is likely to retain power in Uttar Pradesh while the Samajwadi Party will gain some ground under the leadership of Akhilesh Yadav, according to the latest ABP News-CVoter Survey held in the first week of November.

According to the data of the latest round of survey, the BJP-led NDA is expected to get anywhere between 213-221 seats in the 403-seat state Assembly while the Samajwadi Party may emerge victorious on 152-160 seats. The Mayawati-led Bahujan Samaj Party is likely to win 16-20 seats while the Congress is again expected to see disappointment and may end up bagging 6-10 seats.

The survey for the month of October had projected 241-249 seats for the BJP+, 130-138 seats for the Samajwadi Party, 15-19 seats for the BSP and 5-9 seats for the Congress. On the other hand, the September survey had predicted 259-267 seats for the BJP-led NDA, 109-117 seats for the Samajwadi Party, 12-16 seats for the BSP and 3-7 seats for the Congress.

The data suggests that a loss for the BJP-led NDA is a clear gain for the Samajwadi Party which has joined hands with Om Prakash Rajbhar’s Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj Party, a former ally of the BJP in the politically crucial state.

The Congress, with an aggressive stance under general secretary Priyanka Gandhi, is making some progress among voters’ minds as there is an uptick of 2.6 per cent as compared to the 2017 elections.

In the 2017 UP Assembly Polls, BJP was able to wrest 41.4 per cent of the votes while incumbent SP was able to garner only 23.6 per cent of votes. BSP was restricted at 22.2 per cent. In terms of seat share, the BJP-led NDA bagged a whopping 325 seats in the 2017 assembly polls. While SP retained only 48 seats, BSP was able to capture 19 seats and Congress only seven assembly seats.

As per the new projections in November, BJP is not likely to lose voter confidence as it remains at 40.7% among the survey participants, a marginal negative swing of 0.7% since 2017.

In the latest round of survey, 41 per cent people chose Yogi Adityanath as the popular CM face in the state, while Akhilesh Yadav was chose by 32 per cent people and Mayawati by just 16 per cent.

All major players including the Samajwadi Party, the BSP and the Congress have decided to go it alone in the upcoming state elections and are rather eyeing joining hands with smaller caste-based parties. However, experts are of the view that a splintered opposition will only help the ruling party, with the division of anti-BJP votes.

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