West Bengal has voted. But as the state waits for results, the exit polls are not offering clarity — they are offering caution. The 2026 assembly election is not throwing up a wave in any direction. Instead, it is revealing a contest around the majority mark of 148 seats. If the pollsters are to be believed, seat ranges overlap in some, leads are slender and in several projections, a swing of even 5-10 seats could be the difference between a stable government and a hung assembly. Bengal, it appears, has kept its verdict close to its chest.
At the heart of this electoral tug-of-war are the ruling TMC led by Mamata Banerjee and the challenger BJP, which has steadily expanded its organisational reach in the state.
What did exit polls predict?
Exit poll data showed just how tight the race is. PMARQ leaned slightly towards the BJP. It projected 150-175 seats for the party and 118-138 for the TMC. But the lower end of 150 is just above the halfway mark. The margin looks thin and potentially unstable. According to Matrize, the BJP may secure 146-161 seats while the TMC may secure 125-140. The BJP’s lower mark of 146 is below the majority line. That keeps it in hung assembly territory.
Other agencies, including Peoples Pulse, showed overlapping ranges. The overlap keeps both outcomes open.
Hung assembly risk
The clustering of projections between roughly 140-160 seats for the BJP and 120-140 for the TMC places both parties in striking distance of power but not consistently across the threshold. This statistical compression is the classic signature of a potential hung assembly, where no single party secures a clear mandate.
Still, exit polls remained indicative rather than definitive. Indian electoral history is dotted with instances where projections have missed late swings or underestimated silent voters.
What happens if there’s a hung assembly?
If no party crosses 148, the constitutional script comes into play. The Governor typically invites the largest party to attempt government formation. Should the BJP fall short, it may look to smaller parties and Independents to bridge the gap. On the other hand, TMC could explore support from the Congress and Left parties.
Any coalition must prove its majority on the Assembly floor through a trust vote. If no workable arrangement emerges, the state could briefly come under President’s Rule. That will be followed by the possibility of fresh elections. The results of the election will be announced on May 4.