It looks like the much-talked-about Axis My India exit poll prediction for Tamil Nadu is turning out to be real. Actor-turned-politician Thalapathy Vijay’s Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) is doing remarkably well in Tamil Nadu Assembly elections 2026. According to latest trends from the Election Commission of India (ECI), Vijay has surged ahead of the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam led by MK Stalin, crossing the majority mark of 118 seats required to form the government in the state.
Vijay himself is leading in both seats he is contesting – Perambur and Trichy East. Meanwhile, Chief Minister MK Stalin is trailing against TVK candidate VS Babu in Kolathur.
The Axis My India exit poll had projected a dramatic performance for TVK, predicting 98-120 seats in the 234-member Assembly – very close to the 118 seats needed for majority.
It also gave TVK around 35% vote share, almost equal to the DMK-led alliance, while leaving the AIADMK-BJP alliance far behind at roughly 23%. Pollster Pradeep Gupta had even compared Vijay’s rise to that of MGR and NTR. Other polls like Today’s Chanakya gave TVK a more modest 63 seats, but even then positioned it as a major new force.
Could TVK form govt or play kingmaker role?
If the current trends hold, TVK could emerge as the largest single party or a powerful kingmaker in a hung assembly.The strong performance reflects a clear anti-incumbency mood and voters’ desire for change.
As many as 35% of voters cited “change” as their main reason, with this figure shooting up to 77% among TVK supporters. Vijay’s personal appeal is also playing a big role in drawing support.
Vijay’s political journey
Joseph Vijay Chandrasekhar launched the Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) on February 2, 2024. The party was officially registered by the Election Commission on September 8, 2024.
Right from the beginning, Vijay positioned TVK as a fresh, modern Dravidian alternative that is not afraid to take on “corrupt and evil forces” in politics. This strong showing suggests that Tamil Nadu’s political map could be redrawn, with TVK establishing itself as a serious long-term player in the state.
Disclaimer: Exit polls are statistical projections based on voter interviews conducted immediately after polling. They are not official results and should be treated only as indicative trends.