By Wednesday evening, the mood in the TVK camp had shifted sharply from euphoria to deep anxiety. In a fresh development amid the ongoing political uncertainty in Tamil Nadu following the state elections, Vijay’s bid to become the next Chief Minister has hit a roadblock.
Why was Vijay’s oath-taking ceremony delayed?
Governor Rajendra Arlekar was not convinced that TVK has the required numbers to form a stable government. The TVK has to submit clear documentary evidence of its majority support.
TVK secured 108 seats in the Assembly election results announced on Monday. However, its effective strength stands at 107, as Vijay will need to resign from one of the two constituencies he won. In the 233-member Assembly, a majority requires 117 seats. The DMK won 59 seats while the AIADMK bagged 47, taking their combined strength to 106.
Until late Wednesday, TVK leaders were confident that Vijay could be sworn in as Chief Minister first and then prove his majority on the floor of the House. The Governor’s firm position, however, altered the situation and triggered a swift realignment within the traditional Dravidian parties. Sources told The Indian Express that the AIADMK took the first step towards unity, and the DMK did not reject the idea outright.
DMK-AIADMK discussing possible alliance?
In a surprising political development late Wednesday, leaders of the longtime Dravidian rivals DMK and AIADMK began exploring a contingency plan in case Vijay’s TVK fails to secure a majority in the Tamil Nadu Assembly, according to The Indian Express.
Sources from both parties indicated to IE that one proposal under discussion involves the AIADMK forming the government with outside support from the DMK, along with backing from smaller parties. While no formal decision has been taken yet, internal discussions and meetings between leaders suggest the idea is gaining serious consideration and is no longer merely hypothetical.
Congress support backfires
Fresh tensions emerged over the Congress party’s decision to back TVK. While the party formally extended support to Vijay’s outfit, it also indicated a wider political pact that includes coordination for upcoming local body elections, Rajya Sabha polls, and the next Lok Sabha elections. What initially looked like a boost for Vijay’s chances soon began pushing away other potential partners.
According to the IE report, senior leaders from the Anbumani Ramadoss-led PMK (with 4 MLAs), Thol Thirumavalavan-led VCK (2 MLAs), and T V Dhinakaran’s AMMK (1 MLA), who had kept informal channels open with TVK until Wednesday morning, started stepping back from the idea of backing a Vijay-led government.
Sources within several NDA allies also told The Indian Express that the Congress-TVK understanding had significantly altered the ground situation. Two insiders from the NDA camp revealed that directions from Delhi made it clear that alliance partners should not help facilitate a TVK government supported by Congress.