TN exit polls Highlights: Today’s Chanakya predicts Vijay’s rise in Tamil Nadu, DMK set to get 63

The biggest surprise, however, was for the AIADMK, the main opposition party, which has tied up with the BJP once again. The pollster has predicted it will win 45 (plus/minus 11) seats, fewer even than the TVK, which is making its electoral debut this time. The Vijay-led party is expected to win 63 seats with the same error margin, as per Today’s Chankya.

In terms of vote share, the pollster has projected 27% for the AIADMK-led alliance, 39% for DMK + and 30% for the TVK. All of these numbers have an error margin of 3%.

Did language imposition work in Tamil Nadu?

According to the exit polls, the language imposition issue, which the DMK sought to project as a key electoral issue, does not seem to have played as a genuine factor to leave imprints in the state.

The Tamil Nadu went to polls on April 23 for all 234 Assembly constituencies. According to the Election Commission of India, the state recorded a voter turnout of 85.10% and the counting of votes for assembly elections in four states (Tamil Nadu, West Bengal, Assam and Kerala) and one Union Territory (Puducherry) will be held on May 4. To win the election, a party needs to secure at least 118 seats to win.

People’s Pulse, Matrize and P-Marq has projected a clear lead for the DMK+, estimating its tally in the range of 120-–145 seats, comfortably above the majority mark. The AIADMK+ is projected to win in the range between 65-100 seats and TVK to gain in the range if 10-25 seats.

Several media houses and research agencies have fanned out across polling stations to conduct on-the-spot surveys, asking voters about their choices and the factors that influenced their decisions. These responses are being compiled and analysed to project vote share and possible seat outcomes, with early trends expected to emerge shortly.

What are exit polls and how do they work?

After voters cast their vote, exit polls are conducted, making them different from opinion polls that are held weeks or months before elections. While opinion polls attempt to gauge public sentiment ahead of polling, exit polls capture voter preferences after the final decision has been made.

Why Exit Poll predictions can go wrong

These projections by the agencies should be viewed with caution. Exit polls are based on sample surveys and not the entire electorate, and their accuracy has often been debated. In past elections, predictions have deviated significantly from actual results due to factors such as limited sample sizes, non-response and voters choosing not to reveal their true preferences.

Despite the uncertainties, exit polls remain a key indicator in the immediate aftermath of voting, offering early insights into potential winners and shifting political trends.

Meanwhile, Tamil Nadu Chief Minister MK Stalin is seeking a second term for the DMK-led alliance. For decades, Tamil Nadu’s electoral politics has largely followed a pattern of alternation between the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) and the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK). However, with actor Vijay and his party TVK’s entry, it is likely to shift the dimension in the contest.

(Disclaimer: Exit polls are statistical projections based on voter interviews conducted immediately after polling. They are not official results and should be treated only as indicative trends.)