Surgical strikes by India against Pakistan: Will there be a nuclear attack? What will Pak do? 5 options to know

By: | Updated: September 29, 2016 5:21 PM

In the wake of the swift and incisive surgical strikes by India ordered by PM Narendra Modi on terror camps in Pakistan Occupied Kashmir (PoK) that the brave soldiers of the Indian Army carried out in the early morning hours, catching the terrorists by surprise...

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In the wake of the swift and incisive surgical strikes by India ordered by PM Narendra Modi on terror camps in Pakistan Occupied Kashmir (PoK) that the brave soldiers of the Indian Army carried out in the early morning hours, catching the terrorists by surprise even as they slept and emerging triumphant after killing scores of them (numbers being quoted are anywhere between 35-45) , what are the options now open before Pakistan? In short what can they do? Can they retaliate? Will there be a nuclear attack? What will Paksitan PM Nawaz Sharif do? Read on:

1. The biggest option open to Pakistan in the wake of the surgical strike by India in PoK, is the nuclear one. Pakistan Defence Minister Khawaja Muhammad Asif has been rattling nukes as recently as yesterday with his talk of ‘tactical weapons’. Pakistan has some 130 nuclear bombs. The death toll in a nuclear attack can be as high 20 million during the initial explosion and in the immediate after in the entire region. Thereafter, the radiation and effect on climate can kill millions more. It wil also virtually destroy the Earth in so many other ways. But this is an option that even Pakistan’s most important influencers the US and China will not allow. Also, the powerful politicians and armymen in Pakistan, who live in palatial bungalows and are used to life of luxury, know that this will mean certain death for them and their families.

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2. Pakistan Army has the option of launching a military attack on India. It can be official or unofficial, Pakistan has never been very strong about diplomacy on this aspect – remember Kargil war when Pakistani President General Pervez Musharraf ordered his Army dressed in civvies to enter the Indian area and occupy it? They were all killed by the Indian Army and Indian Air Force. But Pakistan never officially informed India that it had launched this attack. Disowning it entirely. However, There is no excuse at all to launch a military attack by Pakistan. Why? Because the area is PoK, which India claims as rightfully its own. It has been occupied by the Pakistani army. So, no case of waging war can officially be made against India – the global community will turn totally anti-Pakistan.

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3. Pakistan can simply deny that the surgical strike by India ever happened. This will please the Pakistani public, even the hothead Islamists, as it will save face. In fact, this is a catch 22 situation for Pakistan. It cannot say that India attacked as this would mean admitting the Indian Army caught them napping. Also, probably, the US and China have ordered Pakistan not to escalate the situation further as it can get out of control. That India had to retaliate after the Uri attack and that Pakistan must lump it.

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4. Pakistan can increase the number of terrorists that it is sending across the international border and LoC to to carry out attacks in India. Since, Pakistan is using the Islamists and not its army, this becomes the biggest option open. Pakistan denies any official role in the terror attacks and the world, including the US and China, has not really been able to counter this shocking reality. However, the role of Pakistan’s ISI in launching attacks through terrorists is widely known.

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5. Pakistan can foment trouble in Afghanistan which is closely allied to India. The government of Afghanistan is weak and its opponents many, including the Taliban to many other terror merchants. Pakistan has been excluded from Afghanistan affairs and it has been creating all sorts of trouble in that country. That Afghanistan has chosen to boycott the Saarc meet in Pakistan at India’s instigation has also humiliated Pakistan. However, Pakistan has a big border with Afghanistan and it has a huge potential to create trouble.

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