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Skymet predicts below normal Monsoon this year

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New | Updated: March 27, 2017 11:22:41 PM

El Nino- a phenomenon associated with warming of Pacific waters- is being attributed as the key reason behind a weak monsoon this year.

El Nino- a phenomenon associated with warming of Pacific waters- is being attributed as the key reason behind a weak monsoon this year.
(PTI)

Weather forecasting agency Skymet on Sunday predicted a below normal Monsoon this year and possible deficient rainfall for western India. El Nino- a phenomenon associated with warming of Pacific waters- is being attributed as the key reason behind a weak monsoon this year. Weather Risk, another private forecasting agency has predicted an El Nino event this year, henceforth resulting in a negative impact on the south-west monsoon during the later part of the monsoon period.

The country’s Government-run India Meteorological Department (IMD) will come out with its monsoon forecast next month. In a conversation with PTI, Skymet CEO Jatin Singh said first half of the monsoon period may see a better rainfall than the later half. As per the Skymet estimate, regions like Gujarat, Konkan and Goa, central Maharashtra, Karnataka, Kerala and Tamil Nadu may record below average rainfall while east India, especially Odisha, Jharkhand and West Bengal are most likely to see normal monsoon rains throughout the season.  “Evolving El Niño may start affecting the monsoon performance July onward. Nevertheless, presence of positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) could help in tempering the adverse impact of El Niño,” he said.

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A positive IOD is associated with cooling of Indian Ocean waters, which has an impact on the monsoon. The Skymet said pre-monsoon rains would be less during April that would eventually lead to intense heating of the land mass.  “Pre-Monsoon activities may pick up pace during May,” Singh said.

However, it may be too early to predict the monsoon based on several indicators. The agency may also revise its prediction in due course like it did last year. Even on Monday, the Skymet said there was 50 per cent chance of normal monsoon.

With PTI inputs

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