An opinion poll conducted by the ABP News-Lokniti Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS) suggests that after 4 years of rule in the state of Uttar Pradesh, the Samajwadi Party government still has enough support to win if an election were held now.
An opinion poll conducted by the ABP News-Lokniti Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS) suggests that after 4 years of rule in the state of Uttar Pradesh, the Samajwadi Party government still has enough support to win if an election were held now. The poll showed that the Akhilesh Yadav-led Samajwadi Party was likely to get 141-151 seats followed closely by the BJP with 124-134 seats, whereas the Bahujan Samajwadi Party(BSP) would win close to 103-113 seats. The Congress was lagging far behind in the race for only 8-14 seats.
Though the election is almost a year to go and these situations might change drastically in the time that follows.The half way mark in the state assembly is 202 seats, which no party seems to have achieved to form a government.While the last two elections saw the mandate heavily siding with either SP or the BSP, this election might see a coalition. One of the important conclusions that can be drawn from this poll is that Congress has no part to play in the game. It has been thoroughly thrown out. It must be remembered, though, that the Congress has ben putting in some serious thoughts into the election strategy by declaring Sheila Dixit as their Chief Ministerial candidate and roping in Prashant Kishor. Earlier last month, Sonia Gandhi’s roadshow had shown quite a good response, before she had to quit midway due to illness. Although this poll suggests that none of these strategical changes has affected the voters in any way.
Akhilesh Yadav and Mayawati are two of the obvious choices for the Chief Ministerial post if the polls are top be believed. Both the leaders got 24% support from the voters, while Union Home Minister Rajnath Singh swept away 7%. The poll also provides us with insights on caste groups are rallying behind different political parties. The survey found that the Jatavs and the non-Jatav Dalits are flocking on to the BSP. They were the key voting blocks of the 2014 election for the BJP. The recent incidents of lynching and flogging of Dalit families and insensitive statements were given by certain BJP leaders seems to change the direction of these particular groups. Though, the BJP still has a strong hold over the higher castes and the OBC voters. BSP continues to get strong support from Muslims and Yadavs, which puts them in the lead. The poll was conducted between July 23 and August 7, 2016.