The elections to fill 57 Rajya Sabha seats across 15 states will be held on June 10 and the results will de declared the same day. While the BJP’s tally is likely to remain 100, the Congress’ share in the Upper House may increase by a couple of seats.
Elections to the seats that will be falling vacant due to the retirement of members on different dates between June and August. Prominent among those retiring are Union ministers Piyush Goyal and Mukhtar Abbas Naqvi, Congress leaders Ambika Soni, Jairam Ramesh and Kapil Sibal, and BSP’s Satish Chandra Misra.
According to established practice, counting will take place an hour after the conclusion of polling. Most of the new members who get elected are likely to vote in the President’s election, due sometime in July.
Rajya Sabha Chunav 2022: States going to polls
While 11 seats are falling vacant in Uttar Pradesh, six members each are retiring from Tamil Nadu and Maharashtra, five from Bihar and four each from Andhra Pradesh, Rajasthan and Karnataka.
Three members each from Madhya Pradesh and Odisha, two each from Telangana, Chhattisgarh, Punjab Jharkhand and Haryana, and one from Uttarakhand are also retiring.
Here is a list of states going to polls on June 10 and the number of Rajya Sabha falling vacant there:
Uttar Pradesh – 11
Maharashtra – 6
Tamil Nadu – 6
Bihar – 5
Rajasthan – 4
Andhra Pradesh – 4
Karnataka – 4
Madhya Pradesh – 3
Odisha – 3
Punjab – 2
Haryana – 2
Jharkhand – 2
Telangana – 2
Chhattisgarh – 2
Uttarakhand – 1
Rajya Sabha Elections 2022: Where numbers stand
The BJP currently has 95 MPs and the Congress 29 in the 245-member house.
The BJP is set to suffer losses in Andhra Pradesh, where it has three outgoing members, Jharkhand and Rajasthan but is hopeful of making upto for its in states like Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand, where it recently retained power.
The saffron party crossed an important milestone when it touched the 100 mark in the Rajya Sabha, a feat achieved by the Congress in 1988. It hopes to be close to the magic figure of 123 along with allies to complete its poll promises.
The Akali Dal’s lone member from Punjab Balwinder Singh Bhunder and Congress’ Ambika Soni are likely to make way for members from the Aam Aadmi Party whose huge strength in the assembly will ensure that it wins both seats.
Five BJP MPs are among the 11 retiring Rajya Sabha members from UP, and the party along with its allies is in a position to win eight seats, while the opposition Samajwadi Party may retain its tally of three.
In Maharashtra, the ruling coalition Shiv Sena-NCP-Congress coalition has the strength to ensure its victory in all the three seats it holds, while the BJP can comfortably win two of its three seats.
The elections are also likely to see the BSP’s presence in the upper house reducing to a mere one.
Rajya Sabha Chunav 2022: Close contest in four states
While 41 of the 57 Rajya Sabha members have been elected unopposed from 11 states, close contests are expected in Maharashtra, Rajasthan, Karnataka and Haryana to elect the remaining 16 candidates.
The six Rajya Sabha MPs to be elected from the states would require 42 votes to win. The ruling MVA has 151 votes which are enough to win three seats, but it has fielded four candidates. On the other hand, the BJP gas 106 MLAs and can win two seats but has fielded three candidates.
The MVA needs 15 more votes to secure the seat, which BJP would bag with 13 more seats. Both the MVA and the BJP are reaching out to smaller parties and Independents — a group of 25 MLAs.
Given their strength, the BJP with 121 MLAs and Congress with 70 members are sure to win two seats and one seat respectively. The contest will be for the fourth seat. Despite lacking the numbers to win a Rajya Sabha seat, the JD(S) with 32 MLAs has fielded its lone candidate Kupendra Reddy.
There’s an all-out fight for the fourth seat between Lehar Singh Siroya (BJP), Mansoor Ali Khan (Congress) and the JD(S) candidate. Interestingly, none of the three parties have the required votes to win the fourth seat, which is why they are reaching out to one another seeking support.
The entry of media baron Kartikeya Sharma, who is supported by both the JJP and the BJP — has made the contest close in the state. Sharma’s entry has queered the pitch for Congress’ Ajay Maken who is eyeing a second term in the Upper House.
Sharma needs 31 votes to win — four more than the surplus of the BJP-led alliance. Congress has 31 but fears cross-voting from its camp. JJP leader Ajay Singh Chautala has said all 10 MLAs of the party will support Sharma.
The entry of another media baron Subhash Chandra, who is backed by the BJP, has made the contest close for the fourth seat where Chandra will be challenging Congress’ Pramod Tiwari.
In the 200-member Rajasthan assembly, each candidate needs 41 votes to win.
The Congress has 108 MLAs and the BJP has 71 votes. The BJP has 30 surplus votes and to win a second seat, it needs another 11. The Congress, to win a third seat, needs 15 more votes. Smaller parties and independents will, therefore, play a critical role in who wins the seat.