According to a poll on the soon to be held Uttar Pradesh elections, Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) supremo Mayawati has emerged as the likely next chief minister even though the poll would throw up a hung assembly. However, the Narendra Modi-led Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is expected to emerge as the largest political party by winning as many as 170-183 seats. The elections will be held in under 6 months.
But this number of members of legislative assembly (MLAs) will still not make for a majority in the 403-member assembly, as the party must win or have the support of as many as 202 MLAs to secure a majority and have the right to appoint its chief minister and form a government.
That also means Mulayam Singh Yadav-led Samajwadi Party is set to lose very badly after 5 years of staying in power with chief minister Akhilesh Yadav’s government the victim of the perception that SP has. He may have done some good work, but the perception is that Uttar Pradesh has not really grown as expected or as per potential under his rule.
BSP, under the fiery leadership of Mayawati, has gained a huge mileage over the last 12-16 months and is expected to reap the benefits. as per the India Today-Axis Opinion Poll for Uttar Pradesh, the party is all set to emerge as second alone to the BJP by bagging as many as 115-124 seats. Mulayam Singh Yadav will get just between 94-103.
The Rahul Gandhi led Congress campaign is expected to fizzle out and not really provide any great benefit to the party during the elections. With Sheila Dikshit as the chief ministerial candidate, the party has failed to create any impression on the public, as per the poll findings. Congress is likely to face great difficulty in even crossing into two figures and at best may bag 8-12 seats.
The message is also that even though PM Narendra Modi has run such a strong campaign and his right-hand man camping in Uttar Pradesh for months and months, the BJP will still not be able to form its own government. Also, from rising economic growth to surgical strikes against Pakistan, people across UP are still not enthused enough to vote for the BJP en masse.
On the question of who should be the next chief minister of Uttar Pradesh, the majority indicated it wanted Mayawati in the seat. Check out the numbers: 31 per cent of the people who took the survey said they wanted Mayawati as CM, while a surprisingly large number, 27 per cent, named Akhilesh Yadav. Sheila Dikshit got just 1 percent.
The poll had thrown in the name of Priyanka Gandhi, but as far as respondents were concerned, she was not the one for UP. She just about scrapped past Dikshit by getting two per cent.
However, the respondents were quite gung-ho about Home Minister and senior BJP leader Rajnath Singh. As many as 18 per cent said they wanted him as CM. Also, surprisingly, as many as 14 per cent wanted the controversial BJP leader Yogi Adityanath as CM.
With Uttar Pradesh suffering the most from a law and order problem, they indicated that Mayawati was the best person to impose peace across UP. A surprisingly large 64 per cent said she is the best in this respect, Akhilesh Yadav was second at 17 per cent and Rajnath Singh at 18.