Monsoon is expected to hit Kerala by May-end or early June, with various forecasting agencies predicting normal or above normal rainfall this year, Science and Technology Minister Harsh Vardhan said today.
“During the current year (2016), normal or above normal rainfall has been predicted by many forecasting agencies, including India Meteorological Department. No forecast assessment for pre-monsoon season is issued by any agencies,” he said in Lok Sabha during Question Hour.
As per IMD’s operational Long Range Forecast (LRF), quantitatively, the monsoon seasonal rainfall is likely to be 106 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA) with a model error of plus-minus 5 per cent. The LPA of seasonal rainfall over the country as a whole for the period 1951-2000 is 89 CM.
“Climatologically, monsoon is expected to reach South Kerala either end of May or early days of June (by May 31, plus-minus 4 days) and forecast for which will be issued on May 15,” he said.
Vardhan said the forecast for monsoon onset over Kerala has been correct and within the forecast limits during all the 10 years from 2005 till 2014.
IMD introduced the present LRF models during 2007 following review of the old forecasting system. IMD’s LRF since 2007 has been more skillful than the forecast before 2007. This effort has led to appreciable improvements in the efficiency of models in making better and better forecasts.
Skill of IMD’s present seasonal forecasting system for India as a whole is better than other countries in the world, he said.