After 15 years in power, the Mamata Banerjee-led Trinamool Congress may have found it hard to stop the anti-incumbency, exit poll projections show. At least three pollsters have given the BJP anywhere between 146-175 seats, while one pollster, People’s Pulse, predicted a fourth term for Mamata Banerjee, giving the TMC 177-187 seats. A party requires 148 seats to form the government.
The BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) also remains firmly on course for a third straight term in Assam, with a broader poll of polls indicating the party to go well past the halfway mark of 63.
In their projections via exit polls, the pollsters projected another term for CM MK Stalin-led Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) alliance in Tamil Nadu in the 2026 Assembly elections. Actor-turned-politician Vijay’s Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK), meanwhile, is being projected to win merely two to six Assembly seats in the state as per People Pulse.
A comeback by the Congress-led UDF in Kerala after 10 years. The pollsters also forecast a return to power for the AINRC-led NDA government in Puducherry.
Disclaimer: Exit polls are statistical projections based on voter interviews conducted immediately after polling. They are not official results and should be treated only as indicative trends.
Here are the key takeaways from the exit poll projections:
BJP edge in Bengal
Exit poll remain divided over the outcome of the assembly elections in Bengal. While four exit polls predicted the BJP would breach Mamata Banerjee’s fort, two pollsters suggested that the TMC would decisively return to power for a consecutive fourth term. Overall, the numbers suggest a close contest.
Two agencies — Peoples Pulse and Axis My India — project a clear lead for the TMC, estimating its tally in the range of 177–187 seats, comfortably above the majority mark. In contrast, multiple other pollsters, including Matrize, P-Marq, Chanakya Strategies and Poll Diary, give the BJP an advantage, with projections ranging from 142 seats to as high as 175 seats.
TVK Shock In Tamil Nadu
Actor Vijay’s new party TVK in its first election contest would win 98-120 seats in Tamil Nadu, according to NDTV-Axis My India prediction. If the exit poll projection come true, the TVK would assert a strong force in the May 4 results, upsetting the ruling DMK and its partners.
Praja Poll, meanwhile, gave no seats to TVK.
Most exit polls predicted a clean sweep for the ruling DMK-led alliance in the state, while two polls projected an AIADMK comeback. Vijay’s TVK has emerged as the most uncertain variable in the contest. The halfway mark in the Tamil Nadu Assembly is 118 seats.
The Poll of Polls placed the DMK at 112–129 seats, the AIADMK at 86–103, TVK at 13–19 and others at 1–5, suggesting a close contest in which the ruling alliance may still have a route to majority, but without the sweep projected by some individual surveys.
Assembly Election Exit Polls 2026 Seat projections from major pollsters across 5 states
NDA Sweep In Assam
Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party and its allies are projected to easily win a majority and return to power in Assam for a third straight term. Axis My India predicted that the BJP will secure 88-100 seats and Congress 24 to 36 seats. The state hasin the 126 member assembly. JVC predicted 88-101 seats for the BJP and 23-33 seats for Congress. It gave 0-2 seats in AIUDF and three to others. Assam had seen a high voter turnout of 85.38% per cent.
In the 2021 polls, the NDA won 75 out of 126 seats. Bharatiya Janata Party emerged as the single largest party with 60 seats. Congress won 29 seats and the All India United Democratic Front 16.
LDF Upset in Kerala
The Congress, a side player in many of the states, has meanwhile found a reason to rejoice in Kerala.
As per Axis My India, the Congress-led UDF front is projected to win 78 to 90 seats in the 140-member assembly. It said the Left Democratic Front would win 49 to 62 seats and the BJP-led NDA zero to three seats.
According to People’s Pulse, the ruling LDF is poised to win 55 to 60 seats, UDF 75 to 85 seats and NDA 0-3 seats.
JVC projected that UDF would win with 72 to 84 seats, LDF 52-60 seats and BJP-led NDA three to eight seats.
Keralam went to the polls in a single phase on April 9 and the voter turnout was 78.27 per cent.
Puducherry to witness NDA return?
Exit polls projected the All India NR Congress-led (AINRC) Nationalist Democratic Alliance (NDA) winning Puducherry in the 2026 Assembly elections. The exit poll by People Pulse has projected 16-19 Assembly seats in the NDA’s corner, while placing Congress and allies with 10 to 12 seats of the total 30 Assembly seats in the Union Territory.
Meanwhile, Vijay’s Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) is being projected to win zero Assembly seats in Puducherry as per People Pulse. Moreover, other political parties are projected to win zero to two seats.
Counting of votes for Assembly elections in Tamil Nadu, West Bengal, Keralam, Assam and Puducherry will take place on May 4.