How ‘fit’ is Narendra Modi to win 2019 Lok Sabha elections: BJP-led NDA likely to win again, says survey

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New Delhi | Updated: May 24, 2018 11:55 PM

Lok Sabha elections 2019: Will prime minister Narendra Modi win 2019 General elections? Will he power BJP to a similar victory margin like 2019?

narendra modi 2019Survey suggests how popular is Narendra Modi and what will happen if elections happen today. (PTI)

Lok Sabha elections 2019: Will prime minister Narendra Modi win 2019 General elections? Will he power BJP to a similar victory margin like 2014? Or, will the Congress topple BJP and come back to power with the support of regional parties? As Fitness Challenge becomes the latest fad on social media, an ABP News-CSDS survey throws light on Modi’s popularity today, and what can happen if General Elections in the country and Assembly polls in the state are called today. The survey was carried out in 19 states of the country.

In 2014, Modi powered BJP to a landslide victory. That was the first time in around three decades when any party won a full majority on its own in the Lok Sabha polls. Since 2014, several surveys have suggested Modi’s popularity remains high.

Let us check what is the latest mood of the nation, as per the ABP News-CSDS survey:

– What will happen if elections are held today? Modi likely to continue to rule in 2019 if the NDA alliance remains intact. If elections happen today, the survey says NDA will likely get 37% vote-share; UPA 31% and Others 32%. NDA 274 out of 545 seats; UPA – 164 seats; Others 105 seats.

South India: Out of 132 seats, NDA likely to win 18-22 seats; UPA 67-75 seats; Others 38-44 seats.

– Modi’s popularity takes a dip, as per ABP News-CSDS survey. It is at 34% at present. Rahul Gandhi’s popularity has increased from 16% in 2014 to 24% in 2018.

North India – 39% vote share for NDA; UPA 21%; Others 40%. NDA likely to win 90 out of 151 seats; UPA 25; others to get 36 seats.

– Rajasthan: Neck and neck fight! NDA likely to get 45% vote share; UPA 42% vote share.

– Uttar Pradesh: BJP likely to lose big if Samajwadi Party and Bahujan Samaj Party contest together. Survey says if elections are held today, NDA will likely get 35% vote share; while others SP+BSP will likely get 46% vote share. UP will get 12% vote share.

– West and Central India: Modi-led NDA continues to maintain a lead over the opposition. NDA likely to win 74 out of 118 seats; UPA – 44 seats

Gujarat: BJP ahead. Survey says NDA likely to get 54% votes, UPA 42% and Others 4%. Congress may gain 9% more vote share as compared to 2014 elections.

– Maharashtra: NDA to lead. NDA-48%, UPA – 40%, others – 21% if Assembly elections are held in the state today. However, to achieve this vote share, BJP will have to fight with Shiv Sena and continue to ally with the regional party. In 2014, the vote share was 51% for NDA.

– Madhya Pradesh: Congress is likely to surprise BJP. The Congress is likely to get 49% vote share, BJP just 34% and others 17% if Assembly elections are held in the state today.

– Eastern India: Huge gain for Modi – The Survey finds that the NDA continues to be popular in eastern India. If Lok Sabha elections are held today, NDA will likely get 86-94 out of 142 seats; UPA 22-26 and others 26-30.

In 2014, NDA had won just 58 seats in eastern India; UPA 21; Others 63.

– West Bengal: Mamata Banerjee reins supreme. If elections are held today in the state, Banerjee’s TMC will likely get 44% vote share, BJP just 24%, Left 17% and Congress 11%.

– Rajasthan: Bad news for BJP. The Congress is likely to make a huge gain in this BJP-ruled state. If assembly elections are held in the state today, Congress may get 44% vote share, BJP 39% and others 17%. In 2013, the BJP had 45% vote share, Congress 33%, and others 22%.

– Bihar: BJP-JD(U) ahead. It seems most of the people of Bihar are happy with JD(U)-BJP government led by Nitish Kumar. The survey suggests if elections are called in Bihar today, BJP and JD(U) alliance will perform exceptionally well while the Congress-RJD are likely to lose again.

According to the survey, 60% of people have supported NDA, while UPA is favored by just 34% people and 6% others. In 2014, 51% supported NDA, 28% UPA, 21% others.

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