After witnessing one of the strongest monsoon seasons in 2025, India is heading into a far more uncertain rainfall season in 2026. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) warns that this year’s southwest monsoon is likely to remain below normal despite an early onset.
A comparison of monsoon data on the IMD website shows a dramatic reversal in weather patterns. 2025 ended as one of India’s wettest monsoon years in over a century, while 2026 is projected to bring weaker rainfall largely due to the looming impact of El Nino conditions.
2025 monsoon ended among India’s wettest seasons in 125 years
According to IMD’s seasonal report, India received 937.2 mm of rainfall during the 2025 southwest monsoon season, making it the fifth-highest monsoon rainfall recorded since 1901.
According to the IMD, the total rainfall stood at 108% of the Long Period Average (LPA), officially classifying 2025 as an above-normal monsoon year.
The monsoon had arrived well in advance last year, making landfall over Kerala on May 24, 2025, nearly a week ahead of the normal onset date of June 1. It was the earliest monsoon onset in 17 years, the earliest since 2009.
Northwest India saw strongest rains, Northeast struggled
Regionally, the rainfall distribution in 2025 was uneven despite strong overall numbers. Northwest India received 747.9 mm rainfall, making it the highest monsoon rainfall in the region since 2001 and the sixth highest since 1901.
In contrast, East and Northeast India recorded just 1089.9 mm rainfall, making it the second-lowest rainfall recorded in the region in over 120 years.
Among India’s 738 districts monitored in June 2025, rainfall patterns showed wide variation. IMD data showed 165 districts received large excess rainfall, 94 recorded excess rainfall, 204 districts saw normal rainfall, while 200 districts remained deficient and 67 districts recorded large deficient rainfall.
Three regions remained rainfall deficient last year
Out of India’s 36 meteorological subdivisions, rainfall remained largely positive in 2025, with only a few exceptions.
The IMD said two subdivisions covering nearly 10% of India’s geographical area recorded large excess rainfall, while 12 subdivisions accounting for 35% of the country received excess rainfall. Meanwhile, 19 subdivisions covering 46% of India saw normal rainfall.
However, the Arunachal Pradesh, Assam and Meghalaya subdivision, and Bihar remained rainfall deficient, together accounting for around 9% of India’s total area.
In Tamil Nadu, the Vaigai Dam which is the lifeline for farmers in five districts, usually releases water in June for the first crop season. But with rainfall declining, releases now happen in July.
This year, the dam’s level has dropped to 27 feet—the lowest in 68 years—against its full height of 71 feet.
2026 monsoon forecast paints weaker picture
The story for 2026 appears significantly different. In its first-stage long-range forecast issued on April 13, 2026, the IMD projected that India’s southwest monsoon rainfall this year would likely remain below normal at 90 to 95% of the Long Period Average.
The department estimated seasonal rainfall at 92% of LPA, with the LPA benchmark standing at 868.6 mm based on the 1971–2020 rainfall average.
The outlook worsened further in IMD’s second-stage revised forecast, where rainfall projections were cut to 90% of LPA with a margin of error of ±4%.
El Nino becomes biggest concern for agriculture
The IMD has identified the expected development of El Nino–Southern Oscillation conditions in the Equatorial Pacific Ocean during the second half of the monsoon season as the biggest reason behind the weaker forecast. The weather phenomenon is historically associated with reduced rainfall in India and raises concerns because nearly 60% of Indian farmers continue to depend directly on monsoon rains for Kharif crop sowing.
According to IMD probability estimates, there is currently a 31% chance of below-normal rainfall, a 27% probability of normal rainfall, while the possibility of stronger rainfall remains extremely low.
Speaking to news agency ANI, IMD scientist Naresh Kumar said, “Monsoon has covered the majority of Karnataka, some parts of Maharashtra, Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, Odisha and the entire northeast. We are expecting that the monsoon may cover some more parts of eastern India, including Bihar, Jharkhand, Odisha, and Chhattisgarh.”
“Light rain is expected in Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan, and Delhi for the next 4-5 days. Due to continuous rain, the temperature is currently lower than normal, and while it is expected to rise slightly, no major heat wave is anticipated in Punjab, Delhi, or Rajasthan,” he said.
Kumar further said that the southern parts of Uttar Pradesh and areas around Madhya Pradesh may experience heat wave conditions.
The department estimated only a 6% chance of above-normal rainfall and just 1% probability of excess rainfall.
Early onset again, but monsoon remains weak so far
Despite the weak forecast, the monsoon once again arrived earlier than expected this year. The southwest monsoon reached the Andaman and Nicobar Islands on May 16, 2026, nearly six days earlier than IMD’s forecast, raising initial hopes of a strong season.
As of June 15, 2026, IMD said the monsoon has advanced into the remaining parts of Andhra Pradesh, West Bengal, more areas of Telangana, Odisha, Jharkhand and Bihar.
However, officials have cautioned that monsoon advancement does not necessarily translate into active rainfall, with several parts of the country already witnessing weak precipitation and emerging rainfall deficits.
Mumbai water reserves under watch as rainfall delays continue
The weak rainfall pattern has now brought urban water supply concerns into focus, especially in Mumbai. According to the Hydraulic Engineering Department of the Municipal Corporation of Greater Mumbai, the total water stock in seven reservoirs supplying drinking water to Mumbai stood at 10.01% of total useful capacity on Wednesday.
At 144,918 million litres, current reserves remain slightly higher than the 141,510 million litres recorded during the same period last year and significantly above the 77,851 million litres recorded in 2024.
The seven lakes (Bhatsa, Upper Vaitarna, Middle Vaitarna, Modak Sagar, Tansa, Vihar and Tulsi) together have a storage capacity of 14.47 lakh million litres and supply nearly 4,000 million litres of potable water daily to Mumbai.
Among them, Bhatsa, Mumbai’s largest water source located in Thane district, currently holds 66,627 million litres, or 9.29% of its useful capacity. Modak Sagar stands at 29.42% capacity, while Middle Vaitarna is at 10.34%.
Meanwhile, Vihar and Tulsi lakes located within Mumbai have filled up to 42.11% and 23.06% capacity respectively.