The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has issued the season’s first Red Alert for Mumbai and parts of the Mumbai Metropolitan Region (MMR), warning of very heavy to extremely heavy rainfall over the weekend as monsoon activity intensifies across western India. Similar warnings remain in place for parts of Gujarat, where heavy rain has inundated roads, disrupted daily life and triggered rescue operations in flood-hit areas. This came even as El Nino conditions continued to strengthen across the world—increasing the likelihood of extreme weather.

Several parts of Mumbai recorded more than 100 mm of rainfall in the past 24 hours, while heavy showers continued across the city on Saturday. Suburban train and BEST bus services remained operational, though commuters reported delays on sections of the local railway network. The IMD has also warned of gusty winds of up to 60 kmph and a high tide of 4.26 metres on Saturday afternoon, increasing the risk of flooding in low-lying areas.

According to the latest update from Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC), Mumbai schools and colleges to remain shut for the afternoon session because of the adverse weather conditions.

The weather office said the southwest monsoon has advanced further into Gujarat, the remaining parts of Madhya Pradesh, and more areas of Rajasthan and Haryana. It has forecast heavy to very heavy rainfall with isolated extremely heavy rainfall over Konkan, Madhya Maharashtra and south Gujarat through July 6, along with thunderstorms and gusty winds across parts of western India.

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Why has IMD issued a Red Alert for Mumbai and the MMR?

The IMD’s Regional Meteorological Centre, Mumbai, has placed Mumbai, Thane and Palghar under a Red Alert for Saturday, forecasting heavy to very heavy rainfall at several places and extremely heavy rainfall at isolated locations. Navi Mumbai is also under a Red Alert. Mumbai has seen persistent heavy rain since the beginning of the week. Data released by the BMC showed several rain gauges recorded more than 100 mm of rainfall in the 24 hours ending Saturday morning. The IMD has advised residents to remain cautious as heavy rain coinciding with high tide could aggravate waterlogging and local flooding.

How has the rain affected Mumbai, Navi Mumbai and Gujarat?

Heavy rain has continued to disrupt normal life across Mumbai and neighbouring districts. Low-lying areas such as Dadar, Andheri, Goregaon and Parel witnessed waterlogging over the past two days, although water receded from some stretches after rainfall briefly eased.

Fresh visuals shared by ANI showed waterlogging in Andheri, Vasai, Nalasopara and other northern parts of the MMR. In Navi Mumbai, the Sanpada underpass remained submerged, while severe waterlogging was reported at the entrance to the APMC vegetable market, affecting commuters and traders.

The impact extended to Gujarat. Severe waterlogging was reported in Junagadh, where the IMD has issued an Orange Alert for very heavy rainfall. Fresh monsoon showers also inundated parts of Dhanera in Banaskantha district, while the Junagadh Fire Department rescued people stranded in floodwaters near Samdhiyala village in the Mendarda area, as reported by ANI. Earlier, heavy rain in Dhrol, Jamnagar district, left roads submerged and vehicles, including school buses, stranded.

The wet spell has also turned deadly. An 11-year-old boy died after a tree fell on his school bus in Chembur earlier this week, while a 60-year-old man lost his life after falling into an open manhole during heavy rain.

What is the forecast for the coming days?

The IMD has forecast widespread rainfall across western India over the next few days. Apart from Konkan, Madhya Maharashtra and south Gujarat, heavy rainfall is also expected over Saurashtra and Kutch, with isolated spells of extremely heavy rain. Thunderstorms accompanied by lightning and gusty winds of 40-60 kmph are also likely across parts of Maharashtra and Gujarat.

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According to an update from the World Meteorological Organisation on Friday, El Nino is forecast to intensify in the coming months. This will increase the likelihood of heatwaves, droughts, heavy rainfall and other extreme weather events in many parts of the world. The Global Seasonal Climate Update shared by WMO predicted an overwhelming likelihood of above average temperatures across most land areas between 60°S and 60°N – which covers nearly all populated areas outside Polar regions.

What does the strengthening El Nino mean for India?

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has warned that El Nino conditions are expected to strengthen rapidly during July-September, increasing the likelihood of heatwaves, droughts and episodes of heavy rainfall in different parts of the world. The IMD declared the onset of El Nino on June 12 and said it is likely to strengthen during the southwest monsoon. El Nino is generally associated with below-normal rainfall in India, and the IMD has already forecast below-normal rainfall for July, at 94% of the long-period average (LPA).

Meanwhile, the Centre on Friday reviewed the country’s preparedness for possible drought conditions linked to El Nino. Union Home Minister Amit Shah directed ministries to coordinate with states on farmer advisories, monitor water reservoirs and ensure preparedness to minimise the impact of any prolonged rainfall deficit.