The Southwest monsoon is likely to hit the Kerala coast on May 26, six days earlier than the usual onset of June 1, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Friday.
The forecast of early arrivals of monsoon comes with a model error of +/- 4 days. If realized, the arrival of monsoon would be the second earliest start date since 2020.
Advance Kharif Sowing
With early onset and rapid progression across the country may boost early sowing of Kharif crops, officials said. “Conditions are favourable for the advance of southwest monsoon over parts of south Bay of Bengal, Andaman Sea and Andaman and Nicobar Islands during next 24 hours,” the met department said in a statement.
Typically, the monsoon after onset over the Kerala coast in early June covers the entire country by July. These southwest monsoon rains, which accounts for around 75% of the country’s annual precipitation, gradually begins to recede from north India by mid-September.
In 2025, monsoon touched down on Kerala coast on May 27. According to the met department, its operational forecasts of the date of monsoon onset over Kerala during 2005-2025, were proved to be correct except in 2015.
The earliest onset date recorded this century is May 18, 2004.
The adequate rainfall boosts hopes of a robust agriculture-sector output as Kharif crops – paddy, pulses, oilseed and coarse cereals – sowing start with the rains. The monsoon rains also provide soil moisture for the winter (rabi) crops – wheat, oilseeds and pulses – .
El Niño Threat
Because of adverse impact of El Nino, the IMD in its first long range forecast last month had predicted ‘below normal’ precipitation during monsoon months (June-September) at 92% of the benchmark-long period average (LPA), with a high 66% chance that the rains will fall in the “deficient to below normal” range. If realised, this would mark the weakest monsoon since 2015, when rainfall was 86% of the benchmark. The past two years saw above normal rains, while 2023 recorded a below-normal season.
“We are travelling through neutral El Nino conditions at present, which is expected to continue during May – June period. El Nino conditions are likely to develop in July and will continue till January,” Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, Director General of Meteorology, IMD had said. Currently, El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-neutral conditions are evolving toward El Niño conditions over the equatorial Pacific.
The below par monsoon rainfall is likely to impact agricultural output besides impacting the rural economy and raise inflation fear, experts say. However, the impact of monsoon on food production has reduced over the years because of availability of irrigation.
“Irrigation coverage has now reached 56% of net sown area, up from 49% in 2014–15 when the country had faced severe back-to-back drought years. This has made cultivation relatively more resilient to such volatility (in monsoon activity),” Pushan Sharma, director, Crisil Intelligence, had stated. In 2025, the monsoon was ‘above normal’ with cumulative precipitation of 108% of LPA as predicted by the weather department initially.