As the southwest monsoon remains active over large swathes of north, east and northeast India, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast a dramatic weather dichotomy for Sunday (July 12), heavy to very heavy rainfall in states like Bihar, Assam, Meghalaya and certain parts of West Bengal, while isolated heatwave conditions are expected to make a comeback in coastal Andhra Pradesh. Thunderstorms, gusty winds and lightning are also likely across several regions, underscoring the volatile nature of this year’s monsoon season.

The IMD’s latest bulletin indicates that an active monsoon trough will continue to influence weather patterns across northern, eastern, and northeastern India on July 12. Heavy to very heavy rainfall is expected at isolated places over Assam and Meghalaya, Bihar, and Sub-Himalayan West Bengal and Sikkim. Meanwhile, heavy rainfall is forecast over Arunachal Pradesh, East Uttar Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, Odisha, Punjab, Himachal Pradesh, Jammu and Kashmir, Uttarakhand and parts of Delhi-NCR.

Widespread rain is also likely over Gangetic West Bengal, Jharkhand, and the Andaman and Nicobar Islands, with fairly widespread showers expected over Bihar. Isolated to scattered rainfall is anticipated over central India, including Madhya Pradesh and Vidarbha, as well as parts of Gujarat, Maharashtra, and peninsular India.

Thunderstorms, gusty winds and lightning add to risks

Beyond heavy rainfall, the IMD has warned of thunderstorms accompanied by lightning and gusty winds of 40–50 kmph over the Andaman and Nicobar Islands, East Madhya Pradesh, Jammu and Kashmir, and Jharkhand. Gusty winds of 30–40 kmph are expected over Gangetic West Bengal, Odisha, and West Madhya Pradesh, while thunderstorms with lightning are likely across parts of the Northeast, Bihar, and Uttarakhand.

IMD officials have advised people in affected areas to avoid unnecessary travel to flood-prone and low-lying regions, particularly during periods of intense rainfall and thunderstorm activity.

Delhi: Temperatures rise, no rain expected soon

Delhi’s maximum temperature rose to 35.7°C on Saturday, 0.2°C above normal, with the IMD forecasting cloudy skies and no significant rainfall for the next few days. The city’s air quality index (AQI) deteriorated to the moderate category, with a 24-hour average of 140. The maximum temperature is likely to rise further to 37–39°C on Sunday.

Coastal Andhra Pradesh braces for heatwave return

In a stark contrast to the monsoon-heavy regions, the IMD has forecast isolated heatwave conditions over Coastal Andhra Pradesh on July 12 (Sunday). This underscores the complex interplay of weather systems across the country, where some regions continue to experience unusually high temperatures even as widespread monsoon showers drench much of the rest of India.

Uttar Pradesh: Normal rainfall so far, but more rain ahead

Most parts of Uttar Pradesh have received normal rainfall during the ongoing monsoon season, according to the IMD’s Meteorological Centre in Lucknow. As of July 11, 29 districts recorded normal rainfall, 10 recorded excess, and 21 remained in the deficient category. Sonbhadra recorded the highest 24-hour rainfall at 85.4 mm, followed by Mirzapur (75.2 mm), Chandauli (70.6 mm), Varanasi (64.4 mm), and Sant Kabir Nagar (61.4 mm).

The IMD has forecast rain and thundershowers at a few places across Uttar Pradesh on Sunday, with heavy rainfall very likely at isolated places in eastern Uttar Pradesh. In Lucknow, the maximum temperature on Saturday was 34.4°C (0.3°C above normal), while the minimum was 25.4°C (0.5°C below normal). Sunday is expected to be partly cloudy, with temperatures around 35°C (max) and 27°C (min).

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Haryana: CM Nayab Saini directs zero waterlogging policy

Haryana Chief Minister Nayab Singh Saini chaired a high-level monsoon preparedness meeting, directing all deputy commissioners to ensure zero waterlogging during the rainy season. He instructed officials to identify waterlogging-prone areas in advance, maintain operational drainage equipment, and ensure round-the-clock operation of flood control rooms in every district.

CM Saini also ordered continuous monitoring of rivers, including the Yamuna, and directed the Health Department to remain on alert to prevent water-borne diseases. Each district has been asked to issue a dedicated toll-free helpline for complaints related to waterlogging, flooding and other emergencies.

Uttarakhand and Himachal Pradesh: Landslides, fatalities and massive disruptions

Heavy to very heavy rain lashed parts of India on Saturday, with Uttarakhand and Himachal Pradesh among the worst-hit. In Uttarakhand, landslides blocked 120 roads, including three national highways. Around 100 pilgrims were escorted to safety across a washed-out stretch of the Yamunotri National Highway after the route remained cut off for two days.

Tragically, Dr Naveen Dimri (45), a resident of Devaldhar village in Chamoli district, was killed when a landslide struck the premises of the Narayanbagad Primary Health Centre, where he was inspecting construction work.

In Himachal Pradesh, heavy rain caused a landslide in Shimla’s Sanjauli area, the collapse of a Bailey bridge in Sangla, and floodwater submerging a house in Kinnaur district. Residents in Shimla alleged that construction activity continued despite the monsoon ban, exacerbating the landslide risk.

Meghalaya: CM Sangma reviews preparedness after 32 villages badly affected

Meghalaya Chief Minister Conrad K Sangma reviewed the state’s monsoon preparedness after heavy rain triggered landslides, flash floods, and localised flooding in 32 villages. He directed all district administrations to remain on high alert and prioritise the restoration of road connectivity disrupted by the rain.

The government urged people to avoid landslide-prone stretches and flooded streams, follow local advisories, and postpone non-essential travel on hill roads during heavy rainfall.

Monsoon deficit narrows, but Kharif sowing lags

India’s cumulative monsoon rainfall deficit has narrowed sharply to 15% below normal as of July 9, down from 38% a week earlier, thanks to strong weekly rainfall that was 45% above normal, mentioned a report by Capital 360. However, Kharif sowing remains significantly behind last year’s pace, with total sowing 20.8% lower year-on-year. Oilseeds are down 39.3%, cotton 22.9%, pulses 21.8%, coarse cereals 16.4%, and rice 13.1%. Reservoir levels have improved, with live storage at 32.4% of total capacity, but remain 36% lower than the same period last year.

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The IMD’s outlook indicates that the monsoon will stay active over several regions through much of the coming week, with continued rainfall expected across eastern, northeastern, and parts of western India. States such as Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Meghalaya, Sub-Himalayan West Bengal, Sikkim, Konkan and Goa, coastal Karnataka, and Uttarakhand are expected to receive widespread or fairly widespread rainfall over the next several days. As India navigates this complex weather landscape, the dual challenges of flood management in rain-heavy regions and heatwave mitigation in coastal zones will remain critical for policymakers and citizens alike.