The southwest monsoon is likely to arrive over Kerala coast on time in early June given the current conditions, India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Friday while indicating that monsoon rains are expected over the Andaman and Nicobar Islands between May 14-20.
“By third week of May, monsoon rains are expected over southern Andaman seas and we are expecting south westerly winds for the advancement of monsoon forward,” Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, Director General of Meteorology, IMD said in a briefing.
This timeline is considered a key indicator of the monsoon’s progress toward mainland. Typically, the southwest monsoon (June-September), after onset over Kerala coast in early June covers the entire country by July. Four monsoon months account for around 70% of country’s annual rainfall.
El Nino Threats
Because of adverse impact of El Nino, the IMD in its first long rage forecast recently predicted ‘below normal’ precipitation during monsoon months (June-September) at 92% of the benchmark-long period average (LPA), with a high 66% chance that the rains will fall in the “deficient to below normal” range.
“We are travelling through neutral El Nino conditions at present, which is expected to continue during May – June period. El Nino conditions are likely to develop in July and will continue till January,” Mohapatra said.
Currently, El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-neutral conditions are evolving toward El Niño conditions over the equatorial Pacific, met department stated. IMD will announce the monsoon arrival date over Kerala coast by May 15 and release the second long range forecast for monsoon rains by end of the month.
Weather office also stated that ‘positive’ Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions, which favours monsoon rains, are likely to develop towards the end of the monsoon season. However Mohapatra said “El-Nino has a more powerful influence on monsoon than that IOD,”.
On the weather outlook for the month, IMD stated during May 2026, maximum temperatures are expected to be normal to below normal across many parts of the country while ‘above-normal’ heatwave days are likely in some parts of the foothills of the Himalayas, east coast, Gujarat and Maharashtra.
Pre-Monsoon Boost
In terms of pre-monsoon showers this month, the met department’s forecast stated that rainfall is expected to be favourable across much of the country, with normal to above-normal precipitation likely in most regions. “However, parts of east and northeast India and east-central India may receive below-normal rainfall,” according to the forecast.
“The rainfall during May, 2026 averaged over the country as a whole is most likely to be above normal at 110% of the LPA,” according to the IMD statement. “Adequate rains this month would definitely boost kharif sowing by ensuring adequate soil moistures and help farmers start sowing of paddy, pulses, oilseeds on time,” Kalyan Goswami, Director General, Agrochem Federation of India, said.
On the impact of the agriculture of temperature this month, the met department has said that moderately favourable conditions for harvesting and threshing of late rabi crops in north and northwest India.
“Normal to below-normal maximum temperatures over most parts of the country may help in reducing heat stress and support better grain filling and harvesting operations,”
In April, due to seven western disturbances, most parts of the country experienced normal to below-normal maximum temperatures, except for southern peninsular India, where temperatures were above normal, IMD stated.