In a huge setback for the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK), the data from the Election Commission revealed that the Chief Minister MK Stalin is trailing in Kolathur seat that was once a safe bastion for him. The seat had long been a DMK stronghold, but now has fallen into Vijay’s Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) pocket.

According to the data available on Election Commission of India’s website, TVK candidate VS Babu has bagged over 40,000 votes and defeating Stalin with a margin of nearly 8,000 votes during the 10th round of counting.

The rise of Stalin in Tamil Nadu elections:

With a history of steadily rising victory margins for Stalin, 2026’s election results have come as a shocker to the DMK chief. The constituency was not just a local battle but a symbolic barometer of the DMK’s urban strength and the opposition’s ability to dent it.

Stalin’s poll promises

On April 19, Stalin had released a special election manifesto for Chennai district and outlined a series of targeted urban initiatives under the banner ‘Chennai Super 6’. The manifesto featured as many as 20 announcements across six core sectors, focusing on infrastructure, mobility and urban amenities.

The manifesto also promised to upgrade facilities in Tamil Nadu Urban Habitat Development Board apartments through government funding routed via Residents’ Welfare Women Associations.

It also addressed water scarcity and proposed setting up RO-purified drinking water systems in areas lacking metro water connections, while ensuring periodic supply in regions already covered under the metro water network.

Did DMK deliver 2021 poll promises?

According to an analysis made by South First, the DMK has fulfilled as many as 394 of the 505 promises it made in its 2021 manifesto. The party had also implemented several schemes that were not part of its manifesto, including the Kalaignar Magalir Urimai Thogai, Naan Mudhalvan, Pudhumai Penn, Tamil Pudhalvan, and the Chief Minister’s Breakfast Scheme.

Meanwhile, it also failed to fulfil 111 promises, including several relating to women’s welfare, particularly marriage assistance schemes. This could also be one of the factors why DMK government is walking on thin ice in the state.

However, it should be noted that Stalin, on the first day of assuming office in May 2021, fulfilled key assurances, including free bus travel for women, Rs 4,000 COVID relief for ration card holders and free COVID treatment in private hospitals.

Margin watch: The key signal

With a history of steadily rising victory margins for Stalin, any early narrowing or widening of the lead will be closely tracked by party strategists. The constituency is not just a local battle but a symbolic barometer of the DMK’s urban strength and the opposition’s ability to dent it.

Here, a strong show could reinforce the ruling party’s dominance narrative, while tighter margins may hint at shifting voter dynamics in Chennai.

A seat shaped by delimitation

Chennai’s Kolathur Assembly constituency was carved out of the former Purasaiwalkam and Villivakkam Assembly segments following the delimitation process in 2008.

Since the first elections after this process in 2011, only the DMK has won, with M. K. Stalin romping home each time. Stalin won the first time by a slender margin of 2,734 votes against AIADMK’s ‘Saidai’ Duraiswamy but improved his margin to 37,730 votes in 2016, and further to 70,384 votes in 2021. Stalin is seeking re-election from here for the fourth time.