The high-octane battle for the 294-seat West Bengal Assembly has culminated in a series of exit poll projections that suggest a seismic shift in the state’s political landscape.
Leading the charge with a bold forecast, Today’s Chanakya has projected a dominant victory for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), forecasting the party to cross the 190-seat mark and unseat the Mamata Banerjee-led TMC government.
As per the data released today, April 30, the BJP is riding a massive wave of voter consolidation, while the ruling Trinamool Congress (TMC) faces its steepest decline since coming to power in 2011.
Today’s Chanakya: The ‘48% vote share’ surge
The projection by Today’s Chanakya stands out for its predicted clean sweep suggesting that the BJP has managed to consolidate nearly half of the total electorate.
Exit Poll | West Bengal 2026 BJP Projected to Unseat TMC in Bengal Today’s Chanakya leads bold forecast; 4 agencies point to saffron majority in 294-seat assembly
“The numbers suggest a direct polarisation where the floating and undecided voters have moved decisively toward the BJP, creating a 10% gap in vote share that is nearly impossible for the TMC to bridge in the seat tally,” a senior analyst at Today’s Chanakya told NewsTV 18.
While Today’s Chanakya is one of the most bullish on the BJP’s numbers, other major pollsters also point toward a BJP lead, albeit with varying margins. The consistent theme across all major agencies is that the BJP has breached the TMC’s urban and rural fortresses simultaneously.
TMC reacts: Mamta says polls created using info supplied by BJP HQ
West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee on Thursday levelled serious allegations against the BJP over the exit poll projections, calling it paid and “circulated from the BJP office.”
Affirming confidence in the public, she said that TMC will cross “226 in 2026.” In a self-made video shared on X, the CM appreciated the people of West Bengal for their massive participation in the polling process, as the combined voter turnout of the two polling phases hit 92.67%.
She further lambasted the BJP, accusing it of allegedly circulating false numbers in the media, which claimed the BJP’s victory in West Bengal.
While a sizable portion of exit polls have predicted a downfall for the party in power, Trinamool Congress has dismissed the projections as ‘wishful thinking.’ Senior TMC leaders maintain that their internal data shows a return to power, banking on the success of welfare schemes like Lakshmir Bhandar.