A new intelligence assessment has raised questions over US President Donald Trump’s repeated claims about Iran’s weakening military strength. The report suggests that despite ongoing pressure from the United States, Iran’s defence and economic systems are far more stable than publicly stated.
The findings, based on a confidential CIA briefing shared with American policymakers, indicate that Iran could sustain the current US naval blockade for around three to four months before facing serious economic stress. The situation is unfolding amid rising tensions around the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most important oil routes.
Iran’s military stockpile and recovery efforts remain strong, report says
According to the report, Iran still holds nearly 70 per cent of its pre-war missile stockpile and about 75 per cent of its mobile launch systems. A US official told The Washington Post that Tehran has also managed to reopen underground facilities, repair damaged missiles, and complete assembly of weapons prepared before the conflict.
The blockade, imposed after the April 7 ceasefire, restricts movement in and out of Iranian ports. Trump had earlier described the operation as “like a wall of steel. Nobody goes through.” However, internal assessments suggest Iran has adapted by storing oil on tankers and slowing production to protect key infrastructure.
Trump and US officials present sharply different assessments
US President Donald Trump, however, has continued to project confidence in the impact of the blockade.
“They have probably 18, 19 per cent, but not a lot by comparison to what they had,” he said during Oval Office remarks.
White House spokeswoman Anna Kelly also claimed that Iran is losing nearly $500 million daily due to the blockade and said, “Now, they are being strangled economically.”
But the CIA analysis suggests otherwise, estimating that Iran could continue operating for 90 to 120 days and possibly longer. One official noted that the country’s position is “nowhere near as dire as some have claimed”.
Drone threat and regional risks remain high
The report also warns that Iran’s missile and drone capabilities continue to pose a serious threat across the region. Iran is believed to have started the conflict with around 2,500 ballistic missiles and thousands of drones, with production likely to resume sooner than expected.
Former Israeli military intelligence officer Danny Citrinowicz said, “All it takes is one drone to hit a ship and no one will give insurance” to oil tankers moving through the Strait of Hormuz.
US officials further believe that while missile capacity has been affected, smaller drone units remain a major challenge due to their ease of production and concealment, keeping tensions high in the Gulf region.