India likely to get normal monsoon rains in 2019: Skymet

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Published: February 26, 2019 1:46:23 AM

A normal monsoon, after a gap of two years, will help the new government to accelerate the economic growth on the back of a good agricultural output.

A detail forecast on monthwise and regionwise rainfall will be released in first week of April.

Private weather forecaster Skymet has predicted a normal monsoon, which brings in over 70% of the annual rainfall that India gets, potentially helping the farmers to harvest bumper crops for third consecutive year.

A normal monsoon, after a gap of two years, will help the new government to accelerate the economic growth on the back of a good agricultural output.

According to a preliminary report, Skymet said there are over 50% chances of the monsoon to be ‘normal’ in 2019.
However, it is a bit early to share the complete details as data are still collected and information is getting collated, the company said in a statement.

A detail forecast on monthwise and regionwise rainfall will be released in first week of April.

Last year, the rainfall was 91% of the long period average (LPA) of 89 cm during June-September monsoon season.
Rainfall between 96-104% of LPA is considered normal for the season.

In 2017, India had received 95% of LPA monsoon rains. Skymet had predicted correctly monsoon to be 95% of normal in 2017.

However, its last year forecast of 100% ‘normal’ rains ended in India receiving ‘below normal’ rainfall.

El Niño, the weather pattern in the Pacific ocean, was on rise till December and showed consistent drop thereafter.

“Going by the early indications, the probability of El Niño is also falling. This trend would surely not lead to a drought.

“This could be one of the normal monsoon years but making a slow start. Initial readings are indicative of some risks attached to some pockets,” Skymet’s CEO Jatin Singh said.

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is likely to be positive during monsoon, he added.

The warming of sea surface temperature in the Pacific beyond a level is called El Nino and the cooling of temperature beyond a certain level is known as La Nina. Emergence of El Nino normally disturbs the flow of monsoon in India and results in deficient rainfall. The IOD is measured on the basis of sea surface temperature in the Indian ocean and it turning positive helps in more rainfall during monsoon.

India is expected to produce record foodgrains in 2018-19 crop year as the rainfall was well distributed and timely. The deficiency in rainfall was limited to few areas in Gujarat, Karnataka and north-east region.

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