After a ‘normal’ rainfall in July, monsoon rains are likely to be ‘below normal’ in August-September, the second half of the southwest monsoon season, the India Meteorological Department said on Friday, citing strengthening El Nino conditions.
For the whole of the monsoon season, the department stuck to the May forecast of below-normal rainfall at 90% of the LPA.
Rainfall in the range of 94-90% of LPA is considered “below normal.”
In May, the IMD revised its June-September rainfall projection to 90% of the LPA, from 92% in its April forecast. It also added that there is an 84% probability that rainfall during the season will remain in the “deficient to below-normal” range. These forecasts will continue to hold.
Regional Relief
The IMD, however, stated that parts of Peninsular India, Central India, northern parts of northwest India and East and northeast India are likely to get ‘normal to above-normal’ rainfall in the next two months.
This augurs well for kharif crops. Though sowing was helped by nornal rains in July, the critucal month which usually accounts for a third of monsoon precipitation, there is still a year-on-year deficit of 4% in total cropped area. Below-normal rains in August-September may impact crop yield in many areas.
El Niño Threat
The governmnment on Thursday indicated the possibility of a strengthening of the El Nino conditions. The IMD said that a moderate El Nino may continue in August, and it may move towards a strong El Nino in September. However, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) may turn positive in September, which may negate the adverse impact of the El Nino on the monsoon, it added.
The actual rainfall in July, when the country received 32% of the total monsoon rainfall, was 1% above the benchmark or in the normal range. IMD had forecast ‘below normal’ rainfall in July.
Due to normal monsoon rains in July, has boosted the sowing of kharif crops – including paddy, pulses, oilseeds, cotton and sugarcane – across the country. Till July 24, kharif crops had been sown in 78.73 million hectare, just 4.7% down from a year ago. The improvement in sowing had eased concerns over a sharp spike in food prices.
“Even though moderate El Nino conditions prevailed over equatorial Pacific, there were there were 24 days of low pressure system formed in the head Bay of Bengal helps to get good rainfall over East central and west Central India,”Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, Director General of Meteorology, India Meteorological Department, said at a briefing. He stated that these inter-seasonal variability in July which cant be captured by long range forecast model of monsoon.
Mohapatra said that despite reduction in the shortfall in rainfall deficiency, yet 46% of the area have received ‘deficient’ rainfall this season.”Our forecast of below normal rainfall for the monsoon season still holds,” he stated.
In May, the IMD revised its June-September rainfall projection to 90% of the LPA, from 92% in its April forecast, placing the season in the “below-normal” category. The met office also said there is an 84% probability that rainfall during the season will remain in the “deficient to below-normal” range.
In June, which was one of the driest corresponding months in over a century, with rainfall 39.9% below the benchmark. The total precipitation of 99.6 mm in June was the lowest among corresponding months since 2014 and the fifth-lowest since 1901.