How the missing ‘Gulf vote’ could flip 50 critical seats in Kerala

Of the state’s overseas voters — just over 2.4 lakh, only a small percentage may turnout for voting this time (as against the usual 60 per cent), as the escalating war has affected over a thousand flights, and airfares are seeing a fourfold increase on key Gulf-Kerala routes, political experts say.

So, how massive will the impact of war be on the Kerala polls 2026 and its changing dynamics?

The absence of Pravasi voters is a “bit of a setback”, but in the end, their vote is “influential but not decisive”, said Congress MP Shashi Tharoor, according to news agency ANI.

Gulf votes the deciding factor in Malabar

The impact is likely to be felt most in North Kerala’s politically crucial Malappuram district. In the 2021 Assembly polls, razor-thin victories in constituencies like Perinthalmanna (38 votes) and Kuttiadi (333 votes) underscore the power of the diaspora in the Malabar region. With Kuttiadi alone hosting over 16,000 registered overseas voters, even a minor dip in NRI turnout could completely upend the electoral arithmetic.

The Non-Resident Keralite (NRK) voters are said to hold a considerable influence across nearly 50 Assembly constituencies stretching from Kannur to Palakkad. When the Pinarayi Vijayan-led Left Front made a historic comeback to power in 2021, several seats were decided by razor-thin margins.

For instance, Najeeb Kanthapuram, the IUML candidate of (UDF) won Perinthalmanna by just 38 votes. In Kuttiadi, CPI(M)’s K.P. Kunhammed Kutti was declared the winner by 333 votes. Constituencies such as Tanur, Thrithala and Palakkad also recorded victory margins of under 5,000.

The scale of influence of the Pravasi voters could further be underlined by the outreach made by parties during the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. Data suggests that nearly 10,000 expatriates arrived in the state to cast vote in the national elections. As per reports, the Muslim League-affiliated Kerala Muslim Cultural Centre (KMCC) arranged two chartered flights for the Vadakara constituency alone.

With the ongoing instability in West Asia disrupting air travel, a modest drop in expatriate turnout constituencies like Kuttiadi in Kozhikode district – the seat has 16,002 registered overseas voters, which is the highest in the state – could face significantly altered outcomes this time. Constituencies like Nadapuram, Tirur and Kalliasseri also have a high concentration of overseas voters.

Political fronts remain publicly optimistic

Nearly 30 per cent of active UDF workers and 60 per cent of supporters in the Gulf are unlikely to return as flight cancellations linked to the regional conflict have severely hit travel plans ahead of the April 9 polling.

Senior Congress leader Shashi Tharoor, while acknowledging that a large number of NRI organisations support UDF, insisted that it is the local voters who play a decisive role in the elections.

“We are very conscious that when something happens in the Gulf, it affects all of us. One problem we are seeing is that many people who would normally have come back to vote are not able to come. Yesterday in Kozhikode, I met with a large number of NRI organisations, which are all groups that support UDF by and large. Normally, they charter entire planes and come, but in today’s climate, that’s not possible, and that will certainly be a bit of a setback, but in the end, their vote is influential but not decisive. It’s the mass of our people staying here who matter. I think ultimately here, people want to change, they’re ready to see a new government, and therefore, we expect to win,” Tharoor, who is serving as the co-chairman of the party’s Kerala Assembly election campaign committee, said.

കോഴിക്കോട് മറ്റാരുണ്ട് എൽഡിഎഫ് അല്ലാതെ#Vote4LDF pic.twitter.com/fPJ8rPGadQ

— CPI(M) Kerala (@CPIMKerala) April 3, 2026

Muslim Youth League, the official youth wing of the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML), have intensified local-level mobilisation among expatriate families in traditionally close contests such as Perinthalmanna and Kuttiadi, according to India Today.

The West Asia crisis has also affected the LDF preparations for the elections. Nearly 90 per cent of NRI voters may miss the chance to vote this time, primarily due to travel disruptions and fears of job loss upon returning, Binu Korom, General Secretary of the Left-leaning Sharjah-based Malayali Arts and Social Centre (MASS), said, according to India Today.

Arun Kumar G, who has been residing in Dubai for 19 years, told Financial Express Online that he will not vote in this election.

“As an NRI voter, it’s disappointing that I won’t be able to return home for this election. The ongoing conflict in the Middle East has created too much uncertainty and risk for travel,” he said. Arun Kumar G is a registered voter in the Changanassery assembly constituency in the Kottayam district.

Kerala is set to vote in a single phase to elect all 140 members on April 9, with results to be announced on May 4.