The defeat of the Bharatiya Janata Party-backed nominee in the recently concluded legislative council elections in Nagpur is relevant in more ways than one. First, it is a huge setback for the saffron party as Nagpur is the home constituency for Maharashtra deputy Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis, Union minister Nitin Gadkari and state BJP president Chandrashekhar Bawankule.
Another reason that makes this election outcome interesting is the boost it has given a fractured Opposition just ahead of the all-important BMC elections. The MVA emerged victorious in three out of the five teachers and graduates constituencies that went to polls on Monday.
The massive electoral defeat in Nagpur, the second in less than a year, has dented the saffron party’s popularity in the state. Last year, Congress’s Abhijit Vanjari defeated BJP’s Sandeep Joshi in another Nagpur graduates’ constituency poll. The Congress also won nine chairperson posts and eight deputy chairperson posts of the 13 panchayat samitis in Nagpur district, while the Shiv Sena faction led by Eknath Shinde won one.
The recent defeat can also have a spill-over effect on the upcoming Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) elections, and possibly the Lok Sabha and Assembly elections as well. The Opposition, which had suffered a severe setback after losing out to power after the rebellion by Shinde and his faction, has seen a silver lining in the small but significant victory.
The return of the Old Pension Scheme, which has been one of the promises that seems to have worked in favour of the Opposition in the recent elections, is an issue that can reverberate in successive polls as well. And the Himachal Pradesh elections have provided just the right reference point.
Months ahead of the elections, Devendra Fadnavis had announced that there was no question of the government returning to the Old Pension Scheme. Although the NDA marked a U-turn ahead of the council elections, the damage had already been done.
The MVA, on the other hand, can effectively market Himachal as an example. The Congress made the OPS promise in the run-up to the state elections, won, and also delivered on it. The OPS promise is an issue that the Opposition can find common ground on.
After the Shiv Sena rebellion in June last year, which toppled the MVA government, and brought back the BJP in power, the saffron party has suffered losses in all the elections that took place in the state, be it the Andheri (East) by-poll, or the Legislative Council elections.
While differences remain within the MVA over the Prakash Ambedkar-led Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi’s (VBA) tie-up with the Uddhav Thackeray Shiv Sena faction, the MVA is leaving no stone unturned to win India’s richest municipal body.
The BJP, on the other hand, is betting on the popularity of Shinde and the charisma of Prime Minister Narendra Modi as it goes into elections to the BMC, Lok Sabha and the state assembly. On January 19, during his visit to Mumbai, the PM laid the foundation stones for a slew of projects and also inaugurated two metro lines. He will visit the city again on February 10 for the opening of the Dawoodi Bohra community’s Arabic Academy in Andheri East. The community has a strong presence in South Mumbai.
The BJP’s seat share in the last three municipal elections to the 227-member BMC has risen from 25 in 2007, to 31 in 2012 and 82 in 2017.