India Meteorological Department chief K J Ramesh today said the number of rainy days are going to shrink but the intensity of rainfall will increase, as he urged people to manage ground water resources appropriately. He also said that the amount of rainfall in the country this year was in line with the IMD’s forecast if one takes the error-range into account. The IMD had initially forecast 96 per cent (of Long Period Average) rainfall and then upgraded it to 98 per cent, he said.
“(We) Finally realised (the actual rainfall) was 95 per cent. If you talk about quantitative terms, 98 plus-minus 4, is our forecast error-range. So it is well within that range,” he told reporters in Hyderabad.
“The distribution of rainfall has also been good.”
Agricultural sowing data show that the distribution of rainfall this season was optimal and the estimation of yield is also positive as stated by the government, he said.
The RBI has also said that agriculture is going to contribute significantly to the GDP this year too, he said.
The water levels in reservoirs, another measure of rainfall distribution, also showed that the distribution was good this year, he said.
“In peninsular India…last year Karnataka did not get rainfall. Kerala did not get good distribution of rainfall. Whereas this year, most of the expected quantum of rainfall has been received by these particular states.
“Only deficit was there in the Madhya Pradesh segment and Uttar Pradesh, Punjab and Haryana. Those are the regions (where) rainfall was deficit,” Ramesh said.
To a question, he said with global warming, the number of rainy days is going to shrink but the intensity of rainfall will increase.
“The ultimate message is you are going to get the rainfall in less number of rainy days, but in spells of heavy intensity. So, that is how we have to manage our groundwater resource appropriately to hold the water and use it for our requirements,” he said.
Monsoon has withdrawn from the north western parts of the country but the IMD has not withdrawn monsoon predictions for states like Telangana, Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka yet, he said.
The ongoing spell of rains in Telangana and other states will continue up to October 10, Ramesh added.