In the high-stakes Assembly Elections of 2026, the Indian National Congress (INC) and its regional alliances appeat to have a mixed bag of results, exit polls indicate. While the party is poised for a comeback in Kerala, it continues to face uphill battles in Assam and West Bengal.

The following section of the article provides a thorough breakdown of Congress’ performance in the poll bound states of Kerala, Assam, Tamil Nadu, West Bengal and Puducherry as per the exit polls prediction of agencies like Axis my India, People’s pulse and Matrize. 

Kerala: The silver lining for the UDF

The most significant takeaway for Congress from the 2026 exit polls is likely to be the projected return of the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) in Kerala. After two consecutive terms of the LDF government, multiple pollsters are leaning towards a ‘regime change.’

Axis My India forecasts a comfortable victory for the UDF with 78–90 seats in the 140-member house. While People’s Pulse projects the UDF to secure 75–85 seats, citing a clear shift in voter sentiment. 

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Presenting his review of these projections, political analyst Dr. J. Prabhash told News18 that the election in Kerala pivoted on ‘development and political accountability’ rather than traditional ideology where people ascribed more to larger developmental promises rather than ideological chains.

Assam: Struggle against the ‘double engine’

In Assam, the Congress-led alliance (United Opposition Forum) appeared to fall heavily behind the BJP-led NDA that is presently also in power. Despite an aggressive campaign focused on the “double engine” governance model, the numbers favor Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma’s return.

Most agencies, including Matrize and Axis My India, place the Congress alliance at a distant second with 24–36 seats, while the BJP+ is expected to sweep with 88–101 seats. 

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Presenting his review of the projections, former AAP member and political analyst Ashutosh told India Today that in states like Assam, the opposition continues to battle a highly structured electoral machinery that makes penetration into BJP strongholds difficult. 

Tamil Nadu & Puducherry: Reliance on alliances

In Tamil Nadu, the Congress remains a junior partner in the DMK-led alliance. While the DMK+ is projected to perform strongly, the entry of actor Vijay’s TVK has disrupted traditional calculations.

Projections vary widely in the state of Tamil Nadu. Axis My India suggests a shocker with TVK leading at 98–120 seats, potentially pushing the DMK-Congress alliance to second place (92–110 seats). However, Praja Poll maintains a lead for the DMK+ at 148–168 seats.

As per people’s pulse, the Congress is projected to win 6–12 seats in Puducherry trailing behind the NR Congress-led NDA.

West Bengal: Marginal presence

The Congress, which has seen its footprint shrink in Bengal over the last decade, remains a marginal player in a high-voltage cliffhanger between the TMC and the BJP. People’s Pulse predicts a meager 1–3 seats for the Congress in the 294-seat assembly.

Disclaimer: Exit polls are statistical projections based on voter interviews conducted immediately after polling. They are not official results and should be treated only as indicative trends.