Leading pollster Today’s Chanakya on Thursday predicted the DMK-led alliance under chief minister M K Stalin is on course to retain power, with the alliance expected to win 125 seats. The pollster DMK projection cushions the blow from Axis My India, which said it could be a very close fight with actor-politician Vijay’s TVK.

Today’s Chanakya also predicted the rise of Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK), led by actor-politician Vijay.

Elections to the 234-seat Tamil Nadu Assembly were held on April 23, and counting of votes will take place on May 4.

Per Today’s Chanakya projection, AIADMK is predicted to win 45 seats.

In data released on Thursday evening, Today’s Chanakya projected Stalin-led DMK, which is leading a coalition that includes the Congress, will win 125 seats, with an error margin of 11, in the 234-member Assembly. The number needed for a majority is 118.

The biggest surprise, however, was for the AIADMK, the main opposition party, which has tied up with the BJP once again. The pollster has predicted it will win 45 (plus/minus 11) seats, fewer even than the TVK, which is making its electoral debut this time. The Vijay-led party is expected to win 63 seats with the same error margin, as per Today’s Chankya.

In terms of vote share, the pollster has projected 27% for the AIADMK-led alliance, 39% for DMK + and 30% for the TVK. All of these numbers have an error margin of 3%.

Did language imposition work in Tamil Nadu?

According to the exit polls, the language imposition issue, which the DMK sought to project as a key electoral issue, does not seem to have played as a genuine factor to leave imprints in the state.

The Tamil Nadu went to polls on April 23 for all 234 Assembly constituencies. According to the Election Commission of India, the state recorded a voter turnout of 85.10% and the counting of votes for assembly elections in four states (Tamil Nadu, West Bengal, Assam and Kerala) and one Union Territory (Puducherry) will be held on May 4. To win the election, a party needs to secure at least 118 seats to win.