El Nino conditions intensified to a ‘moderate’ level this month from ‘weak’ conditions that prevailed in July, the Ministry of Earth Sciences said in Parliament on Thursday.
“El Nino is likely to strengthen further during October-December 2026 and may reach a very strong category,” the ministry stated in response to its impact on the monsoon.
However the ministry stated that El Nino’s exact intensity and impacts over the Indian region depend on the evolution of coupled ocean–atmosphere conditions, of which El Nino is one factor.
Due to the possible impact of El Nino on the monsoon, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) stated in May in its revised forecast that monsoon rainfall is likely to be 90% of the benchmark long period average during the current season, which is in the ‘deficient to below normal’ range.
Monsoon Deficit Narrows
While June rainfall was 40% below the benchmark, the monsoon revived early this month bringing the deficiency in rainfall during June 1 – July 30 down to 13.9%. In July, rainfall has been just 1% below the benchmark or in the normal range.
The IMD stated that El Niño conditions prevail over the equatorial Pacific Ocean, with sea surface temperature anomalies remaining above normal across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. “These conditions are expected to strengthen further during the southwest monsoon season,” the met office stated.
El Nino Intensity Metrics
The ministry also clarified that the World Meteorological Organisation and IMD do not have an officially defined category known as ‘Super El Nino’. The met office also stated that El Nino events are classified as weak, moderate, strong, or very strong based on the magnitude of sea surface temperature anomalies over the equatorial central Pacific Ocean.
Meanwhile, IMD forecasts heavy rainfall over central, west, east and southern regions during the next week because of a de;ep depression.
“Rainfall is likely to be normal to above normal over most parts of South Peninsular India, and East India during next one week, while overall, the rainfall is likely to be normal during the next one week.