US colleges and universities could see as many as 112,000 fewer international students in the 2026-27 academic year. The drop could mean around $3.4 billion in lost revenue and 40,000 fewer jobs across the country, according to new projections from NAFSA: Association of International Educators and JB International.
The fresh projections show a sharp reversal after several years of recovery in international student numbers following the COVID-19 pandemic. Overall international student enrollment is expected to fall by about 9.5% this fall.
Most colleges expect fewer foreign students
The projections are based on data from the Institute of International Education’s (IIE) Spring 2026 Snapshot on International Educational Exchange.
The survey found that 63% of institutions expect their international student numbers to fall in the 2026-27 academic year. Only 11% expect an increase, while 26% expect enrollment to remain about the same.
If the projections hold, around 1.057 million international students will study at US colleges and universities in 2026-27. That would be down from an estimated 1.169 million students in 2025-26.
Fanta Aw, executive director and CEO of NAFSA, said the numbers show how government policies can influence where international students choose to study.
“The projections underscore what we’ve long warned: US policy and regulations affect where international students plan to invest their future, and their decisions carry significant short- and long-term consequences for US society and economy,” Aw said.
“All Americans lose when international students and scholars are driven to more welcoming countries. Forfeiting US position as the top destination for global talent hurts students, hospitals, research laboratories, the economy, and carries the real risk that the next big invention will not happen on US soil.”
Indian students in US fall to 29-month low
The number of Indian students in the United States has fallen to a 29-month low, with the decline continuing for 10 months in a row. According to an analysis of US Department of Homeland Security data, there were 3,38,230 Indian students in the US in July 2026.
The number has been falling steadily since September 2025. Between September 2025 and July 2026, the Indian student population dropped 12%. During the same period a year earlier, the decline was much smaller at 4.4%.
The data also show that the number of Indian students in the US was 8.6% lower year-on-year in July 2026.
The fall has been particularly sharp among Indian students pursuing postgraduate degrees. Their numbers dropped 11.3% year-on-year to 2,66,104 in July. Postgraduate students still make up the largest share of Indian students studying in the US.
The number of Indian students pursuing bachelor’s degrees has also fallen.
Applications and admissions are already falling
Other recent data also show that fewer international students are looking at US universities. According to the Association of American Universities Data Exchange, applications from international students to US doctoral programs fell 21% for this fall. International admissions dropped 17%.
The Common App also reported a 9% fall in international applications for the 2026-27 admission cycle.
These numbers suggest that the decline is not limited to students who have already secured admission. Fewer students are applying to US institutions in the first place.
The latest decline comes after international enrollment had recovered strongly from the pandemic. The number of international students in the US fell to around 914,000 during Covid-19. It then increased for four straight admission cycles, reaching a peak of 1.178 million students in 2024-25.
That year, international students contributed about $43 billion to the US economy and supported around 356,000 jobs.
For 2026-27, however, their economic contribution is expected to fall to about $38.3 billion, while the number of jobs supported is projected to drop to 294,000.
Visa appointments are the biggest hurdle
Visa appointment availability is also causing concern.
There have been reports of limited or delayed appointments for international students at US consulates in India, China and several European countries. Many students who asked for expedited appointments have reportedly been denied.
This is especially important because India and China are the two biggest sources of international students for the US.
The timing of visa processing has also become an issue. The State Department announced that it would give priority visa processing to people holding tickets for the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
That period overlaps with the traditional peak season for student and exchange visitor visas, which runs from May through August. In previous years, the State Department has generally given priority to student and scholar visa applications during this period so they can reach US campuses on time.
Visa bans are adding to the problem
The US introduced new travel restrictions through an executive order issued on December 16, 2025, covering nationals of 39 countries. The restrictions do not provide exceptions for F student visa applicants or J exchange visitors. Some of the countries affected, including Iran and Nigeria, are also major sources of international students for US universities.
For students deciding where to spend several years studying, such restrictions can make the US look like a less certain option.
New student rules are creating more uncertainty
Visa delays are not the only concern for international students. In August 2025, the Department of Homeland Security proposed ending the long-standing “duration of status” system for F students and J exchange visitors.
DHS has now finalised the change. From September 15, 2026, students will no longer use the old D/S system. Instead, they will receive a fixed Admit-Until-Date (AUD).
This could make planning more difficult for students, especially those entering longer degree programs or those who are unsure about what they want to do after graduation.
There is also a lot of uncertainty around Optional Practical Training (OPT). The Trump administration has repeatedly warned that it wants to reform the program. OPT is widely used by international F-1 students to gain work experience in the US.
NAFSA calls for changes
NAFSA is asking the administration to make it easier for international students and exchange visitors to get their visas on time.
The organisation wants the government to prioritise visa interviews and processing for F and M students and J exchange visitors.
It is also calling for F and M students and J exchange visitors to be exempted from the current travel ban covering 39 countries, while keeping the required background checks and security screening for visa approvals.
NAFSA has also asked the administration to preserve OPT for all F-1 students.