Nearly one million people from India are waiting in the employment-based immigration backlog, and for many of them, decades of waiting lie ahead for a green card (permanent residence), according to a new analysis by the National Foundation for American Policy (NFAP).
NFAP estimates that the employment-based immigration backlog has passed 1.2 million and may exceed 2 million by 2040 without changes to U.S. immigration law.
Lawful permanent residents, known as green card holders, have the right to live, work, and settle in the US. They can apply for US citizenship through the naturalization process. To be eligible for a green card, applicants must qualify under one of several categories laid out in law, the two most popular being through family and through employment.
First preference (EB-1) is for priority workers, which includes aliens with extraordinary abilities in sciences, arts, education, business, or athletics, outstanding professors and researchers, and certain multinational managers and executives.
Second preference (EB-2) pertains to foreign workers with advanced degrees or exceptional abilities, including those seeking national interest waivers, while Third preference (EB-3) includes skilled workers, professionals, and other workers.
India: Employment-based Green Card Backlog
Employment-based immigrant visas are divided into five preference categories. Indians waiting for green cards comprise 79% or an estimated 996,599 of the 1,264,495 individuals in the first three preferences of the employment-based immigration backlog as of December 2025, according to the NFAP analysis.
The number of Indians waiting in the employment-based second preference (EB-2) backlog increased by 17.6% or an estimated 109,5050 between April 2020 and December 2025. The number of Indians waiting in the employment-based third preference (EB-3) backlog increased by 51.1% or an estimated 72,209 between April 2020 and December 2025.
As of December 2025, nearly one million people from India are waiting in the employment-based immigration backlog, with an estimated 731,566 in the employment-based second preference and 213,414 in the employment-based third preference.
Where the pressure is building
The backlog is not evenly spread. NFAP’s data shows the employment-based second preference (EB-2), typically used by workers with advanced degrees, has swelled from 622,062 to 731,566 Indians since April 2020, a 17.6% jump. The third preference (EB-3), covering skilled and professional workers, grew even faster, up 51.1% to 213,414. Only the first preference (EB-1), reserved for those with extraordinary ability, actually shrank, falling 28.3% to 51,619.
What a 2026 filing actually means
For an Indian applicant filing a labor certification or immigrant petition in January 2026 or later, NFAP estimates the wait for a green card at 179 years in EB-2 and 38 years in EB-3. EB-1 remains the exception, with a wait of roughly 4 to 5 years.
Why India is hit hardest
The core issue, per NFAP, is the collision of two rules: an annual employment-based cap of 140,000 set by Congress in 1990, and a per-country limit that caps any single nation at roughly 7% of visas issued, translating to about 10,000 a year regardless of population. India and China, despite sending far more applicants than most nations, are allotted the same share as Iceland or Luxembourg.
A widening gap between approvals and green cards
NFAP’s data illustrates how the backlog compounds each year. In FY2016 alone, USCIS approved an estimated 98,594 Indians (including dependents) in the EB-2 category, but only 4,407 actually received permanent residence that year, leaving a gap of over 94,000 added straight to the queue. The pattern repeated in FY2017 and FY2018.
The visa bulletin snapshot
The September US visa bulletin indicates that the final action dates for India’s EB-1, EB-2, and EB-3 categories remain unchanged from August. EB-1 stays at October 15, 2022, EB-2 remains unavailable, and EB-3 sits at January 1, 2014, unchanged. Family-sponsored applicants, on the other hand, saw some of the fastest date movement in recent bulletins, especially in the F2B and F3 categories.
The road ahead
NFAP notes that without a change in US immigration law, the backlog is projected to keep climbing, potentially crossing 2 million by 2040. A proposed rule could increase required salaries for H-1B visa holders and employment-based green card applicants by raising the prevailing wage level.
That may price high-skilled foreign nationals out of the U.S. labor market. Individuals waiting for employment-based green cards typically rely on extensions of H-1B status to remain in the country working until they receive permanent residence.
Disclaimer: This article is for general informational purposes only and does not constitute legal, immigration, or tax advice. Immigration laws and government policies are subject to frequent change without notice. While we strive to provide accurate updates, readers are strongly advised to verify the latest requirements with the official embassy, consulate, or government portal of the respective country. Financial Express is not responsible for any decisions made based on this information.