$3.4 bn & 40,000 jobs at risk: US student visa crackdown’s staggering cost predicted – Report

Now a larger report predicting how much the Trump administration’s visa crackdown could cost the US economy has revealed more worrisome figures. Preliminary projections by NAFSA: Association of International Educators and research firm JB International reveal that disruptions in the immigration process, including visa bans and interview delays, could translate into a potential loss of $3.4 billion in revenue and nearly 40,000 fewer jobs across the country.

These massive figures are, in turn, based on the analysis of US institution of higher education responses to the Institute of International Education’s (IIE) Spring 2026 Snapshot on International Educational Exchange estimating a 9.5% decline in overall enrollment of international students in the United States this fall. The report indicates that 111,000 fewer international students will enroll at American colleges and universities.

Regardless of US President Donald Trump and his second term’s Cabinet views on immigration, even legal pathways allowing foreign nationals into the country, last year’s report by NAFSA showed that international students at US colleges and universities contributed a staggering $42.9 billion to the US economy and boosted more than 355,000 jobs during the 2024-25 academic year.

Surveys show decline in international student enrollment

One of the first nails in the coffin, which triggered fears among foreign nationals applying for various US visas, was the announcement of expanded screening and vetting for visa applicants last year, citing national security woes.

Back in June 2025, the US State Department revealed that all student and exchange visitor applicants in the F, M and J nonimmigrant classifications will be instructed to adjust their privacy settings on all of their social media profiles to “public.” Effective March 30, 2026, US authorities further expanded the online presence review to include applicants in these non-immigrant visa classifications as well: all A-3, C-3 (if a domestic worker), G-5, H-3, H-4 dependents of H-3, K-1, K-2, K-3, Q, R-1, R-2, S, T, and U.

Since Trump’s return to office last year, the Republican leader has vowed to heavily crack down on immigration pathways, even the legal ones, to promote his ‘America First’ agenda. While the MAGA has repeatedly accused foreign nationals across the board of replacing Americans, especially in the job market, multiple channels have projected a different picture about the number of international students in the US.

Recent data collected by the Association of American Universitites Data Exchange shows international applications to US doctoral programs for this fall fell by 21%, prompting a 17% decline in overall international admissions. The plummeting numbers of international applications, in turn, contributed to a 15% fall in overall doctoral program admissions amid rising uncertainties about questions regarding federal research funding and visa approvals.

Secondly, the Common App, a non-profit membership organisation representing more than 1,100 diverse institutions of higher education, reported a 9% fall in international submissions for the 2026-27 cycle. Applications from India dropped 14%, Ghana fell 34%, and Nigeria fell 17%.

Nigeria is now also included in Trump’s expanded list of 39 countries facing a “travel ban” under the presidential action originally published in December 2025.

On top of that, nearly two-thirds of US institutions responding to IIE’s Spring 2026 Snapshot survey are expecting a further descent in international enrollments in 2026-27. Some are even bracing for a fall as high as 40% in graduate enrollment.

What is fuelling the decline?

Visa restrictions targeting certain countries

As detailed on the official US Congress website, entries from immigrants and non-immigrants of the following countries are now deemed “fully suspended” in the US: Afghanistan, Burkina Faso, Burma, Chad, Republic of the Congo, Equatorial Guinea, Eritrea, Haiti, Iran, Laos, Libya, Mali, Niger, Sierra Leone, Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan, Syria, and Yemen.

Meanwhile, the entry of foreign nationals from the following 20 countries is “partially suspended”: Angola, Antigua and Barbuda, Benin, Burundi, Cote d’Ivoire, Cuba, Dominica, Gabon, The Gambia, Malawi, Mauritania, Nigeria, Senegal, Tanzania, Togo, Tonga, Turkmenistan, Venezuela, Zambia, and Zimbabwe.

“According to United States law enforcement reporting, foreign nationals from countries named in this proclamation have been involved with crimes that include murder, terrorism, embezzling public funds, human smuggling, human trafficking, and other criminal activity,” the White House stated in December 2025.

“Many of these countries are ranked in the top third of countries for criminality, and widely unreliable foreign civil documents and lack of authoritative criminal information make it extremely difficult for United States screening and vetting authorities to assess prior criminal activity and other grounds of inadmissibility.”

Priority visas for FIFA World Cup 2026

NAFSA lists the US State Department’s announcement of priority visa processing for the 2026 FIFA World Cup ticket holders coming to the US as another factor driving the decline in foreign student enrollments.

With the final match between Argentina and Spain taking place on July 19, the timeline severely clashed with the traditional “peak” season for student and exchange visitor visas.

Limited or delayed visa appointments

US government’s official data in recent years has established India and China as the biggest sources of international students for the United States.

Reports of serious delays in limited visa appointments at consulates in India have especially been doing rounds in the mainstream cycle for a while. Indian nationals haven’t just complained about facing devastating snags in the student visa cycle but also the H-1B visa application process since late 2025 due to expanded social media vetting.

According to NAFSA, China and countries across Europe have suffered a similar fate regarding disruptions linked to students visa appointments.

Elimination of ‘Duration of Status’

The Department of Homeland Security proposed eliminating the longtime ‘duration of status’ (D/S) policy for F students and J exchange visitors last year.

Originally, the immigration term entailed that one could remain in the US as long as they maintain their non-immigrant student status. There was no fixed date attached to the ‘duration of status’ framework.

However, in July 2026, DHS published a final rule in the Federal Register introducing a fixed period of admission and extension of stay procedure (EOS) for students on F-type visas. Under the final rule, which will take effect on September 15, 2026, student visa holders will be admitted to the US for a fixed period of time. Not exceeding four years, in addition to a 30-day period of arrival and an additional 30-day period of departure, this will be based on the length of a student’s program listed on their Form I-20.

Addressing the projected loss to the US economy, Fanta Aw, Executive Director and CEO of NAFSA: Association of International Educators, said that international students’ decisions about where they plan on investing their future have major short- and long-term consequences.

“All Americans lose when international students and scholars are driven to more welcoming countries,” asserted the NAFSA CEO. “Forfeiting US position as the top destination for global talent hurts students, hospitals, research laboratories, the economies—and carries the real risk that the next big invention will not happen on US soil.”

She and NAFSA at large urged the Trump administration and US Congress to implement necessary actions to ensure that international students continue contributing to American society.