179-year US green card wait for Indians? NFAP explains why EB-2 queue could be so long

The figure does not mean every Indian EB-2 applicant will literally wait 179 years. It is NFAP’s estimate based on the existing backlog, annual visa limits, per-country limits and the pace at which green cards become available. The organisation states that waiting times can change if US immigration law changes, applicants leave the queue or additional employment-based green cards become available through unused family-based numbers.

NFAP estimates that an Indian applicant in EB-3 could face a 38-year wait, while the estimated wait for EB-1 is about five years for applications filed in January 2026 or later. For comparison, NFAP estimates a 25-year EB-2 wait for applicants from China and only about 0.3 years for applicants from the Philippines.

Why has Indian EB-2 queue become so long?

NFAP points to two major features of US immigration law: the overall annual limit on employment-based green cards and the per-country limit.

US law currently provides 140,000 employment-based immigrant visas a year, a figure set by Congress in 1990. The limit covers both principal applicants and their dependent family members. NFAP says dependents typically use half or more of the available slots.

The 140,000 figure applies across five employment-based preference categories, from EB-1 through EB-5. EB-1 covers categories such as outstanding researchers and professors and people with extraordinary ability. EB-2 covers workers with advanced degrees or exceptional ability, while EB-3 covers professionals, skilled workers and other workers. EB-4 covers certain special workers and EB-5 covers employment creation and investor visas.

Within the annual employment-based quota, EB-1, EB-2 and EB-3 each receive 40,040 numbers, or 28.6% of the total, under the basic allocation. Some unused numbers can move between categories under the rules. EB-1 can use numbers unused by EB-4 and EB-5, EB-2 can use numbers not used by EB-1, and EB-3 can use numbers not used by EB-2.

The second constraint is the 7% per-country limit. Section 202(a) of the Immigration and Nationality Act generally prevents more than 7% of employment-based immigrant visas from going to nationals of one country in a fiscal year, subject to exceptions when numbers remain available. NFAP says this works out to about 10,000 employment-based immigrants from one country in many cases.

This creates a major mismatch for countries such as India and China, where demand for employment-based green cards is much higher. Yet the basic per-country ceiling applies to them as well. NFAP points out that India and China receive the same basic country allocation as countries such as Iceland and Luxembourg.

That mismatch is at the heart of the Indian backlog. A large number of Indian professionals qualify for employment-based green cards, but the number of immigrant visas available to Indian applicants each year cannot rise in line with demand under the existing rules.

NFAP estimates that Indians accounted for 79% of the entire backlog in the first three employment-based preferences as of December 2025. That amounted to about 996,599 people out of a total employment-based backlog of 1,264,495.

The Indian EB-2 backlog alone stood at an estimated 731,566 people in December 2025, up from 622,062 in April 2020. That was an increase of 109,505, or 17.6%, according to NFAP’s calculations. The Indian EB-3 backlog reached 213,414, up 51.1% from April 2020.

The wider US employment-based backlog also increased during the period. NFAP estimates that the backlog across EB-1, EB-2 and EB-3 rose from 1,048,342 in April 2020 to 1,264,495 in December 2025, an increase of 216,153 people, or 20.6%.
EB-2 accounted for the largest increase among the three categories, with its backlog rising 22.9%, while EB-3 rose 30.1%. EB-1 was the only one of the three categories to record a decline, falling 16.6%.

Why does the backlog keep growing?

The scale of the Indian EB-2 problem becomes clearer when looking at past years.

NFAP examined USCIS data for fiscal years 2016 through 2018. In FY2016, USCIS approved 47,601 Indian applications in EB-2. After adding dependents, NFAP estimated that this represented 98,594 people. Yet only 4,407 Indians received permanent residence through EB-2 that year.

That left a difference of more than 94,000 people between those approved and those who received permanent residence in FY2016. NFAP’s table shows a similar pattern in FY2017 and FY2018. In FY2017, the estimated number of Indians approved in EB-2 was 84,928, while 3,328 received permanent residence. In FY2018, the corresponding figures were 80,999 and 4,527.

The numbers illustrate how the queue can grow even when the US approves large numbers of employment-based petitions. Approval of an employment-based petition does not itself guarantee an immediately available green card. Applicants can remain in the system until a visa number becomes available.

The backlog is also different from a USCIS processing delay. NFAP specifically says the long waits are not caused by slow USCIS processing. The main problem is the statutory limits combined with the number of people waiting for visa availability.
Another part of the process can add time before an applicant even reaches the visa queue. Most employment-based immigrants need labour certification, and NFAP says that process can take two to three years. It includes a prevailing wage determination and recruitment before the PERM application reaches the Department of Labor.

As of August 2026, the Department of Labor website listed an average processing time of 403 days for PERM applications under analyst review and 290 days for applications under audit review, according to NFAP’s report. These processing periods are separate from the much longer wait for an immigrant visa number.

The August 2026 Visa Bulletin also showed how far behind the employment-based categories had fallen for Indian applicants. NFAP said an Indian applicant needed a priority date earlier than October 15, 2022, for EB-1 and January 1, 2014, for EB-3 to file for adjustment of status under the applicable August 2026 dates. EB-2 India was listed as unavailable in August, after having a cutoff date of September 1, 2013, in June 2026.

A priority date generally comes from the date the government receives the PERM application or, where labour certification does not apply, the date an immigrant petition is filed. The State Department uses the Visa Bulletin to determine which priority dates can receive available immigrant visa numbers.

That is why two Indian professionals with similar qualifications can face very different situations. Someone with a much older priority date may be close to receiving permanent residence, while someone who entered the queue in 2025 or 2026 could face a much longer wait under current conditions.

NFAP estimates that an Indian EB-2 applicant with a priority date between September 1 and December 31, 2013, could face a wait of less than two years if immigrant visa availability returns in the October 2026 Visa Bulletin. The organisation, however, cautions that such estimates depend on current trends.

Waiting-time estimates also have limitations. Some applicants may abandon their applications and move to other countries. Employment-based visa numbers can increase in some years when family-based categories do not use their full allocation. These factors can change the eventual waiting period.

Can the backlog shrink without a law change?

NFAP’s analysis suggests that reducing the backlog significantly would be difficult under the existing system. It projects that the overall employment-based backlog, which had already passed 1.2 million by December 2025, could exceed 2 million by 2040 without changes to US immigration law.

There have already been years when employment-based immigration received more green cards than the standard 140,000 annual figure. NFAP says more than 280,000 additional green cards were added to the employment-based category between FY2020 and FY2024 because of unused family-based numbers carried over under the law.

The actual employment-based totals varied sharply during those years. According to NFAP’s table, the US issued 148,960 employment-based green cards in FY2020, 193,340 in FY2021, 270,280 in FY2022, 196,760 in FY2023 and 171,120 in FY2024.

The total for those five years was 980,460, compared with 700,000 under the standard 140,000 annual figure.

Yet those additional numbers did not eliminate the backlog. NFAP says the employment-based backlog still increased by 20.6% between April 2020 and December 2025.

The report also points to a 2022 legislative attempt to address part of the problem. As part of what became the CHIPS and Science Act, the US House of Representatives passed an exemption from employment-based numerical limits for people with PhDs in science and technology fields and people with master’s degrees in critical industries.

NFAP says the provision was blocked by Senator Charles Grassley during the conference committee and did not make it into the final legislation. The report says the measure would have significantly reduced the employment-based backlog.

The current numbers also show why Indian applicants face a different experience from applicants in several other countries. NFAP says the EB-2 category was current for applicants from all countries except India and China. This means the overall EB-2 system can have available numbers while applicants from India remain subject to a country-specific backlog.

For Indian professionals, the practical effect can stretch far beyond immigration paperwork. Many remain in temporary H-1B status while they wait for permanent residence. NFAP says these long waits can create difficulties for individuals and their families and can make it harder for US companies to attract and retain skilled workers.

Employment-based green cards cover workers with advanced degrees and other high-skilled qualifications. EB-2 includes professionals with advanced degrees as well as people who qualify through exceptional ability. The category has become one of the main routes for highly skilled Indian professionals seeking permanent residence in the US.

NFAP’s estimate should therefore be read as a measure of the scale of the current backlog, rather than a guaranteed personal timeline for every applicant. A 179-year estimate is based on current conditions and existing law. Changes in annual visa numbers, per-country limits, demand, applicant behaviour or legislation could alter the calculation.

For now, however, the report presents a stark picture. An Indian professional entering the EB-2 queue in 2026 faces a potential wait measured in centuries under the assumptions used by NFAP. An EB-3 applicant could face decades, while EB-1 offers a much shorter estimated wait of around five years.

The central issue is the gap between the number of skilled immigrants seeking permanent residence and the number of green cards US law allows each year. NFAP says that without legislative changes, that gap can continue to produce long queues.

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