BNP Paribas India has done extensive research on the Indian automotive industry during the festive season that tracks festival demand weekly. Based on registration data collected from 95 per cent of all regional transport offices (RTOs), which likely cover more than 90 per cent of total new vehicle registrations in the country.
Highlighting the trends during the fourth week of the festive season, the research shows that the automotive industry continued to witness double-digit YoY sales volume growth in the final week of this festive season, with the growth profile improving WoW.
Compared with the fourth week of the 2019 festive season, all the segments showed a double-digit CAGR. This festive season’s cumulative data shows a YoY sales volume growth of c36 per cent for two-wheelers, c17 per cent for mopeds, c43 per cent for PVs, c70 per cent for three-wheelers, and c45 per cent for tractors (implying 3-year CAGRs of +2%, -2%, +13%, +1% and +22%, respectively).
The report says, “The festival season trend gives us confidence that PV demand remains strong and raises hopes of a two-wheeler and tractor demand recovery. That said, sustaining this demand momentum, especially for two-wheelers, will be crucial post the festive period for it to be really called a recovery.”
The findings for the fourth week of the festive season are:
Two-wheelers: Weekly retail sales grew c52 per cent YoY in the festive season’s final week, helped by a weak base, with a 3-year CAGR of c11 per cent.
Mopeds: Registrations grew c31 per cent YoY, rising c7 per cent on a 3-year CAGR basis.
PVs: Sales rose c45 per cent YoY with a 3-year CAGR of c18 per cent.
Three-wheelers: Registrations grew c86 per cent YoY with a 3-year CAGR growth of c6 per cent.
Tractors: Registrations were up c60 per cent YoY, implying a 3-year CAGR of c29 per cent.
The study also shows that the sales of EVs and Petrol/CNG vehicles outperformed sales of other fuel-type vehicle segments (the sales volume of both more than doubled YoY during this festive season).