Karnataka floor test: It's all about the game of numbers today in Karnataka! And perhaps the most difficult test for newly elected chief minister BS Yeddyurappa. Ahead of the floor test at 4 PM today in Vidhan Soudha in Bengaluru, BSY has possible scenarios to win the trust vote.
It’s all about the game of numbers today in Karnataka! And perhaps the most difficult test for newly elected Karnataka chief minister BS Yeddyurappa. BSY was sworn in as the Chief Minister on May 17, after BJP emerged as the single largest party having 104 MLAs. Although it was seven short of the halfway mark of 111, where the Congress won 78 seats and JD(S) 37, and claimed to form the majority. However, today BS Yeddyurappa seeks the trust vote in the Karnataka Assembly floor test to prove his strength.
The majority mark has gone down from 112 to 111 as JD(S) leader H D Kumaraswamy, who won two assembly constituencies of Ramanagaram and Channapatna, will be only able to cast only one vote during the floor test. Also the pro tem speaker is allowed to vote in case of a tie, 220 votes can be cast initially, and the midway mark is 110. Leaving the speaker’s vote in this situation, BJP will now have 103 votes and need 7 more to reach 110.
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Ahead of the floor test at 4 PM today in Vidhan Soudha in Bengaluru, here are the 4 possible scenarios for Yeddyurappa to win the trust vote:
Scenario 1: Get Congress MLAs to abstain from voting
If BS Yeddyurappa gets 14 Congress or JD(S) MLAs to abstain from voting or make them resign just after taking oath, then, the house will be reduced to a strength of 206 members. The new majority mark will then be 104, which is the present majority that the BJP possesses in the Assembly now.
Scenario 2: Present in the house but skip voting
Another possibility for Yeddyurappa to win the trust vote emerges if Congress or JD(S) MLAs refrain from voting or in case of last-minute absenteeism. The BJP will then win the trust vote. This scenario is similar to the 2008 Lok Sabha vote of confidence for the Indo-US nuclear deal. The trust vote which was won by the then PM Manmohan Singh’s government, had 10 MPs did not record their vote in the house of 531.
Scenario 3: Voice Vote
Another possible way to gain a majority for the newly-elected CM Yeddyurappa can be a voice vote where the MLAs have to probably utter simple Ayes” and “Nays” towards the confidence motion. In 2014, the 13-day-old BJP Government headed by Devendra Fadnavis had won the confidence motion in Maharashtra Assembly by a voice vote, which was protested by former ally Shiv Sena.
Scenario 4: BSY concedes defeat, exits gracefully
And the last scenario for Yeddyurappa is that he delivers a farewell speech and resigns from the post of Chief Minister of Karnataka. This would be BSY’s admission that he doesn’t have the majority in the Assembly, and hence, there would be no floor test which would then pave way for the Congress and JD(S) to form the government. In 1996, Atal Bihari Vajpayee submitted his resignation to the President after delivering a stirring speech in Parliament. BJP failed to garner enough support from other parties to obtain a majority and Vajpayee resigned after 13 days.