If BJP led by prime minister Narendra Modi’s extensive campaigning succeeds in getting the majority on its own, it will lead to a larger opposition unity at the national level in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls.
If Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) succeeds in getting a majority in the Uttar Pradesh assembly, it will ultimately lead to a larger alliance of opposition parties that may include Congress party also. But, if the Samajwadi-Congress combine succeeds in forming the government, even with the help of Bahujan Samaj Party, the opposition will most probably end up being more fragmented than even today due to the intense power struggle that may follow.
The results of the Uttar Pradesh assembly elections, along with four other states, will not only decide which party will rule the all-important state in the country that also sends a maximum of 80 MPs to the Lok Sabha, but will also indicate towards the likely political mathematics of the 2019 national elections.
If Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) led by prime minister Narendra Modi’s extensive campaigning succeeds in getting the majority on its own, it will lead to a larger opposition unity at the national level in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls. Even if the party succeeds in forming the government in the state with Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), the situation will remain the same as SP and BSP in any case will find it difficult to stick together for a longer period.
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But, if the Samajwadi-Congress (Akhilesh Yadav – Rahul Gandhi) combine succeeds in forming the government, even with the help of BSP, which will not be easy to turn into a reality, the opposition will most probably end up being more fragmented in 2019 due to the intense power and prominence struggle that may follow.
Clearly, if the UP results tomorrow are on the lines indicated by the majority of the exit polls, showing a saffron surge, the Samajwadi Party may turn out to be the loser in the immediate run, but it may end up helping the opposition by forcing them to look for strong alliances for 2019 Lok Sabha polls.
Exit polls yesterday gave the BJP a clear edge over others in UP, while predicting an exit for the SAD-BJP alliance in Punjab. Most of them hinted at the BJP becoming the single largest party for sure with two of them even giving the party a comfortable majority on its own. Uttarakhand and Goa, however, may be close calls for the BJP, while Manipur is likely to go its way.
Whatever be the results finally, the early signs of future political alliances will be visible in the remaining part of the Budget session, which in all probability, will be stormy post-UP results.