As counting began for the Tamil Nadu Assembly elections on Monday morning, actor-turned-politician Vijay got off to a strong start. The Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) chief is leading in the Tiruchirappalli East constituency after the first round, ahead by 1,669 votes.
Interestingly, while most exit polls pointed to a return for the DMK-led alliance, the contest on the ground remains tight and intense. For years, politics in Tamil Nadu has mostly been a straight fight between the DMK and the AIADMK. But Vijay’s entry appears to be changing that pattern, at least in the early rounds of counting.
Exit polls split on Vijay’s debut, TVK emerges as big ‘X-factor’
Exit polls released after voting ended on April 29 showed a clear divide. While some predicted a steady start for TVK, others believed Vijay could completely shake up Tamil Nadu’s traditional two-party politics.
Axis My India made the boldest prediction, giving TVK anywhere between 98 and 120 seats. In the same projection, the DMK-led alliance was placed between 92 and 110 seats, while the AIADMK-led bloc was expected to get between 22 and 32.
The agency estimated that TVK could secure around 35% vote share, putting it on par with the ruling DMK-led alliance. Its data also pointed to strong support among young voters. Around 68% of first-time voters aged 18–19 are said to back TVK, while 59% of voters in the 20–29 age group are also leaning towards the party.
According to Axis My India’s Pradeep Gupta, Vijay is the most preferred choice for Chief Minister with 37% support, just ahead of current Chief Minister MK Stalin, who stands at 35%.
Not all pollsters agree with such a dramatic outcome
Today’s Chanakya and a few others suggested that while TVK may perform well, the DMK-led alliance is still likely to stay ahead. In this scenario, TVK could cut into the AIADMK’s vote base and push it further down.
Today’s Chanakya gave a more balanced estimate. It predicted 125 seats for the DMK alliance, 63 for TVK, and around 45 for the AIADMK alliance. Other agencies like Peoples Pulse have suggested a smaller debut for TVK, estimating around 18 to 24 seats. P-Marq and Matrize have gone even lower, placing the party in the 10 to 12 seat range.
Early postal ballot trends favour DMK
According to ANI, at some counting centres, early postal ballot numbers have shown the DMK taking an initial lead. At Queen Mary’s College counting centre, in the Chepauk-Triplicane seat, the DMK received 21 postal votes, compared to 7 for the AIADMK and 6 for TVK.
In Harbour, the DMK had 19 votes, while AIADMK had 7 and TVK 9. In RK Nagar, the DMK secured 22 postal votes, with AIADMK at 7 and TVK at 11.
In Royapuram, the numbers stood at 10 for DMK, 7 for AIADMK and 6 for TVK. In Thiruvikanagar, DMK had 9, AIADMK 5, and TVK was slightly ahead there with 10 votes.
Contesting from two seats, all eyes on Vijay’s debut
Vijay is contesting from Tiruchirappalli East and Perambur, and much of the spotlight is on how he performs in these constituencies. In Tiruchirappalli East, his main rival from the DMK, Inigo Irudayaraj, is trailing in the early round, according to initial counting trends.
Early trends suggest that TVK is not just relying on Vijay alone. Around fifteen of its candidates are leading in different constituencies in the early rounds.
Among them are G Ramamoorthi from Tiruchirappalli West, Senthil Kumar N from Srivaikuntam, Saravanan G from Thiruvottiyur, and Sathish Christopher from Radhapuram, all showing early leads.
Vijay’s popularity could work in his favour
Vijay entered politics at the peak of his film career, bringing with him a massive fan base. He enjoys strong support among young people and women, including many first-time voters. This popularity could play a big role in how his party performs.
Over the years, several film stars, including Sivaji Ganesan, Vijayakanth and Kamal Haasan, have tried to make a mark in Tamil Nadu politics but could not reach the top post. Superstar Rajinikanth, despite much speculation, chose to stay away from electoral politics.
TVK has contested all 234 seats in the state and has built its campaign largely around young voters. The party has promised student stipends, loans for startups without collateral, and a strong push for a drug-free Tamil Nadu.