BJP is likely to single largest party in the state, winning 25-31 seats in the 60 member Assembly.
Manipur has been a happy hunting ground for Congress over the years under the leadership of Chief Minister Okram Ibobi Singh who has won last three assembly elections in the state convincingly. In 2012, he led his party to an absolute majority securing 42 out of the total 60 assembly seats. In 2007, Congress had won 30 seats so the result in 2012 was a reflection of its growing status in the state. However, a lot has changed since then. This year’s voting was conducted in two phases ending on March 8. Bharatiya Janata Party led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi emerged as a serious threat for Congress in the state for the first time. Even though most political pundits expect a huge downfall for Congress this year, the contest is likely to be very close.
Going into this election, underdevelopment, unemployment and frequent economic blockades were the key issues in Manipur. The state has a 19,02,562-strong electorate comprising of 9,28,573 male and 9,73,989 female voters. This year about 45,642 new voters registered themselves with Election Commission. The elections for 60 seats were held in two different phases.
As per projects by MRC, BJP is likely to be single largest party in the state, winning 25-31 seats in the 60 member Assembly, while the Congress will end up getting 17-21 seats, while others will get 9-15 seats. In a projection made by the CVoter survey has projected BJP to gain in inner Manipur with 36 percent votes while in New Districts and Outer Manipur, the party is likely to gain by 39.5 percent and 28.2 percent since last time, which means a total seat share of 33.6 percent BJP. Meanwhile, the Congress seat share has fallen since 2012 to 6.4 percent in inner Manipur,-18 percent in New District, while in Outer Manipur, swing of votes for Congress has fallen to 25.5 percent. Other political parties may see a loss of 20.6 percent seat sharing in the state.
As far as seat sharing is concerned, BJP is likely to gain 14 seats from inner Manipur since 2012, while it may gain 8 seats in new districts and six seats in outer Manipur, which means the party may increase its tally to 28 more seats this time, compared to last Assembly polls. On the other hand Congress, which has been in power in the state since last 15 years has a reason to worry about this time. According to the CVoter India survey, the party may lose 20 seats this time, with 15 from inner Manipur, 3 from New Districts and 2 from outer Manipur. Talking about others they are likely to lose 3 seats from Inner Manipur, 1 from New Districts while 8 from Outer Manipur since 2012.
You may also like to watch this video
The survey further said that BJP will also get vote share of 34.8 percent in the state, while Congress and Others will get 32.7 percent and 32.5 percent respectively.The projections by MRC and CVoter India clearly shows that BJP in most likely be the single largest party and in most likelyhood may even form the government on its own.